Pakistan’s hopes of reaching their first World Test Championship 2025–27 final are hanging by a thread. With seven Tests remaining and a difficult series in England next, they have little room for error and must produce an extraordinary turnaround to keep their campaign alive.
Two wins and four defeats from their opening six matches, combined with eight penalty points for slow over-rates, have left Pakistan with a WTC points percentage of just 22.22.
To remain in contention for their first-ever WTC final, they now need a remarkable turnaround, beginning with a demanding three-Test series in England from August 19.
The equation is straightforward but unforgiving. Pakistan can finish on 64.1 per cent if they win all seven of their remaining Tests. Six wins and a draw would take them to 58.97 per cent, while six wins and one defeat would leave them on 56.41 per cent.
If they lose two tests or more, they will be out of the race for WTC 2025-27.
England: A Difficult First Test
Pakistan’s immediate challenge is a side that is also going through a period of transition. England have played 13 Tests in the current WTC cycle, winning four and losing eight, with one draw. Their 24.36 per cent points percentage has been further damaged by 14 penalty points for slow over-rates, reducing their available points from 52 to 38.
England’s remaining schedule includes the three Tests against Pakistan, followed by a series against South Africa and Bangladesh. Even if they win all eight remaining Tests without incurring further penalties, their maximum points percentage would be only 53.17 per cent.
That makes the Pakistan series important for England too, although Pakistan’s situation is considerably more urgent.
The first Test begins at Headingley in Leeds on August 19, followed by matches at Lord’s and Edgbaston. The conditions could immediately expose Pakistan’s weaknesses. Former Pakistan fast-bowling great Shoaib Akhtar has warned that England are likely to prepare seam-friendly pitches, particularly at Headingley and Lord’s, where the conditions could provide substantial assistance to the fast bowlers.
Akhtar believes England will also have learned from Pakistan’s recent series against the West Indies, and will look to exploit Pakistan’s batting vulnerabilities from the outset. Edgbaston, where the third test will be played, he suggested, may offer Pakistan comparatively more relief.
A Rivalry with a Long Memory
Pakistan’s first tour of England came in 1954, when the series was drawn 1–1, with Fazal Mahmood producing a memorable 12-wicket performance at The Oval. Pakistan subsequently remained competitive in several drawn series before entering their strongest period in England during the late 1980s and 1990s.
Under Imran Khan, Javed Miandad and Wasim Akram, Pakistan won three consecutive Test series in England: 1–0 in 1987, 2–1 in 1992 and 2–0 in 1996. The latter remains Pakistan’s most recent Test series victory in England. On that tour, Mushtaq Ahmed and Waqar Younis played starring roles with the ball, taking 17 and 16 wickets respectively, while Saeed Anwar scored 362 runs at an average of 60.33.
Since then, Pakistan’s fortunes have been mixed. England won the 2006 series 3–0, while the 2010 tour also ended in a 3–1 defeat. More recently, Pakistan produced a memorable 2–2 draw in 2016 and another 1–1 draw in 2018. England won the 2020 series 1–0, making this Pakistan’s first Test tour of England since then.
The hosts currently sit at No. 5 in the Test rankings, with Pakistan at No. 7. England have won 24 tests in series played on their home soil, although Pakistan have won 12 Tests in England, and 20 tests remained drawn.
England Begins a New Era
The series carries additional significance because England are entering a new phase of their red-ball cricket. The Ben Stokes–Brendon McCullum era has come to an end, bringing with it questions about whether England’s aggressively attacking style will evolve.
Joe Root has returned as Test captain following Stokes’ retirement, beginning his second stint in the role after leading England from 2017 to 2022. Former New Zealand captain Stephen Fleming has been appointed Test head coach, replacing McCullum, although Marcus Trescothick will oversee the Pakistan series as interim coach before Fleming takes full charge.
The restructuring also reflects a desire for greater tactical balance. England have recalled medium-pacer Sam Cook and brought back players such as Dan Lawrence and Ollie Pope, suggesting a move away from an ultra-pace-heavy approach towards greater adaptability and squad depth.
For Root and Trescothick, Pakistan represent the first examination of this new direction. England must find a balance between the attacking instincts developed under McCullum and a more adaptable approach suited to different match situations. With their own WTC position precarious, there is little room for a slow start.
Can Pakistan’s Pacers Make the Difference?
Pakistan’s best hope may ultimately rest with their seamers. But the attack arriving in England is considerably different from the one that has traditionally carried Pakistan’s reputation in English conditions.
With Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah and Hasan Ali omitted, Mohammad Abbas leads an attack also featuring Khurram Shehzad, Mohammad Ali, Aamer Jamal and youngster Ubaid Shah. The group lacks the express pace of 145-plus kilometres per hour that can intimidate batsmen. Ubaid Shah can bowl around 140 kph, but he has played just one international test so far.
However, Muhammad Abbas could become central to Pakistan’s plans. His ability to repeatedly land the ball in the right areas and extract seam movement makes him well suited to overcast English conditions.
On paper, England hold the advantage. They have considerable depth, with Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Brydon Carse, Josh Tongue, Ollie Robinson, Sam Cook and Matthew Fisher offering a combination of pace, seam movement and local knowledge of the Dukes ball.
The Batting May Decide It
That may be the decisive question. Pakistan are moving directly from the slow, low-bounce pitches of the Caribbean to conditions where the Dukes ball can continue to move late.
The transition will demand discipline from the top order. Leaving the ball outside off stump, making precise front-foot movements and resisting the temptation to chase deliveries will be crucial, particularly during the opening 20 overs when the ball is new.
Babar Azam and Shan Masood can provide experience of English conditions, while Saud Shakeel and Salman Agha offer the technical ability to build substantial innings if the top order survives the new-ball examination.
For Pakistan to win, their bowlers must exploit whatever assistance the English conditions provide, but their batters must first survive long enough to turn that assistance into a contest.
