Pakistan-USA strategic compact is a possibility that needs to be viewed through the prism of the US security and geopolitical imperatives, in an era when multilateralism and international law are on the retreat. The US interests in the stability and security of South Asia, especially Pakistan and its restive Western neighbour Afghanistan, stem from the big power competition dynamics. Instead of a mutually enervating competition, Professor Stephen Walt offers the offshore balancing is a pragmatic cooperative response.
As per his theory, Professor Stephen Walt advocates the offshore US presence supplemented with bases that inspire rather than threaten the allies, besides keeping away from a deadly minuet of China-USA offensive deployments. Pakistan’s alliance-making with the global powers is reflective of the same structural imperatives that inform Walt’s famous balance of threats theory, according to which India’s aggressive intent, geographic proximity and aggregate power, incentivise Pakistan to navigate a delicate path, vis-à-vis relations with China and the USA.
The above compulsion gives space to the China-USA entente in South Asia, driven by the US interests, not to cede space to a global rival like China and the Chinese interests in ensuring that its “corridor economics” centred Global Development Initiative is not derailed. Though Afghanistan has wrongly earned the sobriquet of the “graveyard of empires,” it has actually been a happy hunting ground for the competing interests of various global powers throughout its history. Pakistan, as a stable geoeconomic bridge, can serve the US interests ideally in the region.
If the USA were to listen to Jeffrey Sach’s impassioned advocacy for geopolitical cooperation with China, then there is no arena more suitable than Afghanistan and Pakistan for the fructification of that vision. Interestingly, even if one were to subscribe to the Manichaean vision of offensive realism by John Mearshiemer, that espouses domination of the Western hemisphere by the USA and the Eastern hemisphere by China, the enhanced US engagement in the region makes perfect sense. It is always a useful strategy not to cede space for a rising rival for one’s geopolitical as well as economic interests.
After the US precipitated withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, China has been expanding its economic reach and would welcome a land corridor to Iran and Europe through Afghanistan. Russia, in pursuit of its Eurasian integration policy, is keen to keep the Central Asian states in its orbit, while the Central Asian states wish to move away from mother Russia, in pursuit of geopolitical and economic autonomy through infrastructure corridors that link their landlocked geography with the warm waters of Pakistan’s Arabian Sea ports.
An unstable Afghanistan, that is in the tyrannical grip of a regime that is ruling the country through the right of conquest, has emerged as a veritable hatchery of terrorism and organised crime, that threatens not only Pakistan but the entire world. The worldview of the Taliban regime in occupation of Afghanistan is grounded in medieval cultural norms that celebrate violence, patriarchy and misogyny as a cultural preference. Their perverted religious understanding and apostasization of dissent have enabled them to prevaricate and renege on all issues and commitments.
The Taliban regime has failed to live up to its promises to all peace interlocutors and is in cahoots with over 20 terrorist groups, that not only are being patronised but are being allowed to earn economic rents through organised crime, i.e., narco-trafficking, kidnappings for ransom, and smuggling of arms & contrabands. Terrorist ecosystems rarely remain geographically confined, as the anti-Pakistan violence can easily morph into broader regional and transnational threats, clearly threatening the security interests of the international community, including the USA.
The USA has three prime interests in the peace in Pakistan and the eradication of the terror networks from Afghanistan. The first is geopolitical, and according to the prescriptions of all leading scholars like Mearsheimer, Walt, and Sachs, the USA should not completely disengage, leaving a vacuum for its competitors to fill. Contrary to expectations, the increased violence by the Afghanistan-based terror groups has further enhanced the penetration and clout of the regional powers and global competitors of the USA in the region. The second interest is purely economical due to the US search for mines and minerals. While other powers like China have made inroads in the mineral exploration sector in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the US involvement so far has lagged behind.
Pakistan’s western provinces, i.e., KP and Balochistan, possess significant untapped reserves of copper, gold, rare elements and minerals critical for modern technologies and energy transitions. Baluchistan accounts for approximately 55% of Pakistan’s total mineral-rich areas, where the Reko Diq deposit alone contains an estimated 5.9 billion tons of ore, including over 13 million tons of copper and nearly 18-21 million ounces of gold, making it one of the largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits in the world.
The third interest is counter terrorism, where the monitoring of transnational terrorism assumes top priority for the USA, as a prophylactic response against global terror. It is in the interest of the USA, therefore, that the terror emanating from Afghanistan and the insidious proxy warfare by Indians be controlled so that a stable Pakistan offers the sustained strategic dividends of counter terrorism, mineral exploration, and a geopolitical placement to advance the US interests in the region.
To attain the above objectives, the USA may consider equipping Pakistan with advanced counterterrorism enablers, including surveillance and strike drones, Black Hawk helicopters, AC-130 gunships, signals intelligence and communication interception capabilities and AI-driven intelligence fusion systems to enhance its capacity to detect, monitor and neutralise terrorist threats, while safeguarding critical economic and strategic assets.
Persistent proxy conflict and terrorism in Pakistan’s western regions undermine the US objectives related to critical minerals, Central Asian connectivity, counterterrorism, economic integration and the competition with China. By adopting a more proactive approach towards regional security, revitalising counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan and discouraging the use of Afghan territory for proxy warfare, the US can certainly safeguard its long-term geopolitical and economic interests in South and Central Asia, besides burnishing its image as a global stabiliser.
