WASHINGTON: Pakistan’s central bank governor said the country’s economy has improved “faster than anticipated” and is better positioned to withstand external shocks, including global risks linked to the Middle East conflict.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor said this during meetings with foreign investors and credit rating agencies on the sidelines of the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings.
In discussions with senior executives from global financial institutions, including JP Morgan, Barclays, Citibank, Jefferies and Franklin Templeton, as well as rating agencies Fitch, Moody’s and S&P Global, SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad said macroeconomic stability had strengthened significantly ahead of recent external pressures.
The SBP Governor noted that inflation had eased to an average of 5.7 percent during the first nine months of FY26, the current account remained in surplus, and foreign exchange reserves had risen to $16.4 billion, with expectations of reaching around $18 billion by June 2026.
He also highlighted a recovery in economic activity, with GDP growth rising to 3.8 percent in the first half of FY26. He reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to maintaining price stability and fiscal discipline amid ongoing global uncertainty.
Jameel Ahmad said that while the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has introduced new risks and increased uncertainty about the macroeconomic outlook, Pakistan’s economy is relatively better positioned compared to previous crisis episodes to manage these emerging challenges.
The SBP Governor informed participants about the significant progress Pakistan had made in stabilising its economy prior to the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.
'Pakistan’s key macroeconomic indicators have improved faster than anticipated at the beginning of the fiscal year'; says Governor #SBP Mr. Jameel Ahmad while addressing foreign investors on the sidelines of the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings.
He emphasized that a prudent…
— SBP (@StateBank_Pak) April 18, 2026
He emphasised that a prudent monetary and fiscal policy mix had helped bring down and stabilise inflation within the target range, while strengthening the country’s fiscal and external buffers.
The Governor stated that during the first nine months of the ongoing fiscal year, inflation averaged 5.7 percent; the external current account balance remained in surplus; and SBP’s FX reserves strengthened to $16.4 billion, mainly due to SBP’s purchases from the interbank FX market.
He highlighted that, with continued SBP’s purchases and realisation of official inflows, including under fresh bilateral arrangements, SBP’s FX reserves are expected to strengthen further to around $ 18 billion by June 2026.
The SBP Governor explained that the improved macroeconomic stability has supported a gradual, sustainable, and broad-based recovery in economic growth.
He said that the country’s real GDP registered a broad-based acceleration to 3.8 percent during H1-FY26, against 1.8 percent recorded in the first half of the last fiscal year.
The Governor emphasised that the prudent policy direction meant that Pakistan’s initial conditions are significantly stronger today than during previous periods of external shocks, such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict in early 2022.
Jameel Ahmad noted that these better initial conditions have put the economy in a stronger position, as it now faces challenges stemming from recent developments in the Middle East, including the unprecedented surge in global energy prices and freight and insurance costs.
However, he reaffirmed that the SBP and the government remain committed to preserving price stability and will not refrain from taking necessary measures to safeguard macroeconomic stability.
He noted that the SBP’s monetary policy has been prudently cautious, with the real policy rate remaining significantly positive.
Additionally, the government has posted primary fiscal surpluses. In the face of the ongoing conflict, it has implemented targeted subsidies and introduced demand-management austerity measures.
The Governor also noted the staff-level agreement with the IMF for the third review of the Extended Fund Facility and the second review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, as well as credit ratings reaffirmation by a major agency, as independent recognition of the government’s and SBP’s continued commitment to macroeconomic stability and reform agenda.
During his visit, the SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad also engaged with the Pakistani diaspora and global stakeholders at the Remittances and Roshan Digital Account (RDA) Roadshow.
He highlighted the milestone achievement of RDA inflows surpassing $12.4 billion across more than 917,000 accounts.
He also outlined recent enhancements to the RDA regulatory framework, including the inclusion of non-resident entities, which are aimed at further integrating Pakistan into the global financial markets and attracting a broader range of foreign investment into the country.
