Key Points
- Brent crude climbs to $105.50 a barrel in later trading
- US crude recovers to $92.49 after an early decline
- Diesel prices ease on expectations of additional supplies
ISLAMABAD: International oil prices recovered from early losses on Monday, with Brent crude rising to around $105.50 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude reaching $92.49, as supply risks in the Middle East competed with expectations of additional Russian fuel exports.
The latest readings published by OilPrice.com showed Brent up 82 cents, or 0.78 per cent, while WTI gained 64 cents, or 0.70 per cent.
Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude was quoted at $110.60 a barrel, up 13 cents, or 0.12 per cent. These are intraday market quotations, not final closing prices.
Earlier in the session, the Emirates News Agency (WAM) reported Brent at $103.18 a barrel, down $1.54, or 1.47 per cent, while WTI stood at $90.31, also down $1.54, or 1.68 per cent.
Financial Times market data subsequently recorded Brent at $104.76, confirming a recovery from the early decline.
Oil prices with divergent sentiment
The price movements reflect competing pressures on the market. Traders are weighing the risk of further disruption to the Middle East oil shipments against the possibility that additional Russian diesel supplies could ease pressure on fuel markets.
Shipping risks remain a major concern. Attacks on ships near Oman and in the Strait of Hormuz have raised questions about the security of oil shipments through a vital route for global energy supplies.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported a drone strike on a tanker near Oman’s Sohar anchorage and damage to another vessel transiting the strait. The incidents have added to the concerns over the reliability of regional oil exports.
The market is also reacting to US President Donald Trump’s announcement that Russia would supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel, with further deliveries expected.
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The Associated Press reported that Brent was trading at $104.76 a barrel on Monday as investors assessed the proposed purchases and their implications for energy supplies.
Refined fuel markets behaved differently from crude. The Financial Times reported that European diesel prices fell by about 5 per cent to $1,410 a tonne on Monday morning before recovering slightly.
However, uncertainty over the proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and continued damage to energy infrastructure have limited confidence that the decline will translate into lasting relief for fuel buyers.
For Pakistan, which relies heavily on imported petroleum, movements in international crude and refined-product prices have direct implications for the import bill, transport costs and inflation.
However, changes in global benchmarks do not translate immediately into equivalent changes in domestic petrol and diesel prices, which also depend on the rupee-dollar exchange rate, freight, government levies and the local pricing mechanism.
The immediate outlook remains uncertain. Further escalation around the Strait of Hormuz could renew upward pressure on crude, while a sustained increase in Russian fuel exports could ease shortages in some refined-product markets.
The direction of prices will depend on whether additional supplies reach buyers and whether shipping disruptions intensify or subside.
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have added another source of uncertainty to oil markets since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28, 2026.
Although the Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen has rejected the Houthis ‘ claim on October 3 to have struck Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Riyadh with missiles and drones, it dampened the refined products market sentiment
Houthi attacks, though condemned globally, have heightened concern over Saudi energy infrastructure and regional shipping routes.
Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate have swung sharply as traders assess the risk of supply disruptions against the prospect of additional exports.
The impact extends beyond crude: refined fuel exports from the Gulf remained at only 60 per cent of pre-war levels in September, compared with 91 per cent for crude and condensate, according to Vortexa data.
The tighter supply of diesel and jet fuel has sustained pressure on refined-product markets even as crude shipments recover.
