Key Points
- Government says gas supply chain remains functional despite global disruptions
- Households across major cities report severe low pressure and outages at peak hours
- LNG shortfalls, declining domestic production and prioritisation policy drive crisis
- Structural bottlenecks expose gap between supply claims and consumer experience
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s government insists the country’s gas supply chain is intact, yet millions of households are struggling to cook meals as outages and low pressure grip urban centres, exposing a widening disconnect between official assurances and daily reality.
The contradiction reflects a deeper structural imbalance: gas may be entering the system, but it is not reaching consumers in sufficient volumes or at the times they need it most.
Global shock meets local fragility
At the core of the crisis is Pakistan’s growing dependence on imported liquefied natural gas through entities, a shift that has made the country more vulnerable to global market shocks.
With supplies tightening amid geopolitical tensions affecting key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, even minor disruptions in cargo deliveries are translating into significant domestic shortages.
Officials maintain that terminals are operational and pipelines are functional, forming the basis of the “intact supply chain” narrative. However, energy analysts note that such assessments focus on infrastructure status rather than actual deliverability to the end users.
Declining domestic gas base
Domestic production, once the backbone of Pakistan’s energy mix, is falling steadily as major fields mature and output declines.
This erosion of local supply has reduced the system’s buffer capacity, forcing heavier reliance on imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) at volatile global prices.
Financial constraints linked to circular debt are further limiting the country’s ability to procure additional cargoes, tightening supply margins across the network.
Who gets the gas
The crisis is being shaped as much by policy as by supply. Gas allocation follows a prioritisation structure that places power generation, fertiliser production and export industries ahead of household consumption. The ministerial and regulatory officials call it the gas load management.
As shortages intensify, domestic users are pushed to the end of the supply chain. The result is stark: while industries continue to receive gas to sustain economic output, households face dry pipelines during peak cooking hours.
Infrastructure bottlenecks
Pakistan’s pipeline network was originally designed for predictable domestic gas flows, not the fluctuating volumes associated with LNG imports. This mismatch has created bottlenecks between coastal terminals and inland demand centres.
Even when LNG cargoes arrive and are processed, the transmission capacity constraints prevent full volumes from reaching consumers, particularly in densely populated urban areas.
The ‘invisible’ load shedding
Unlike electricity cuts, gas outages are rarely scheduled or formally announced. Instead, they appear as sudden drops in pressure, often during early mornings and evenings when demand peaks.
This unpredictability has turned gas shortages into what analysts describe as “invisible load shedding,” leaving households unable to plan basic daily routines and amplifying public frustration.
A crisis of delivery more than supply
Energy experts argue that the government’s claim is not entirely inaccurate – but it is incomplete. The supply chain may be operational in a technical sense, with LNG imports continuing and infrastructure intact.
However, the real issue lies in delivery. Insufficient volumes, uneven allocation and structural inefficiencies mean that available gas is not translating into reliable access for consumers.
Prolonged strain ahead
With domestic reserves continuing to decline and global LNG markets expected to remain tight, Pakistan faces a prolonged period of constrained gas availability.
Analysts say meaningful relief would require politically difficult reforms, including pricing adjustments, infrastructure investment and a reassessment of allocation priorities.
Until then, the gap between official assurances and lived experience is likely to persist – a reality summed up not in policy statements, but in households where stoves remain unlit despite a system said to be intact.
