MUZAFFARABAD: The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is firmly positioned to form the next government in Azad Jammu and Kashmir after emerging as the largest party in the staggered Legislative Assembly elections, although the final composition of the 53-member house is yet to be determined because of re-polling and delayed polling in several constituencies.
According to the latest available results, the PML-N has secured 24 seats, while the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has won 12 seats and the Awami Dast-o-Baazo has secured one seat. The result of LA-16 Bagh-III remains pending. The final balance will depend on re-polling in two Bagh constituencies and elections in seven constituencies of Poonch and Sudhnoti.
The Azad Jammu and Kashmir Election Commission has ordered re-polling at 23 polling stations in LA-15 Bagh-II and LA-16 Bagh-III on August 15 after reports of irregularities and disruption. In LA-15, PPP’s Sardar Ziaul Qamar was leading PML-N’s Mushtaq Ahmed Minhas, while in LA-16 PML-N’s Sardar Mir Akbar Khan was ahead of PPP’s Sardar Qamaruz Zaman by 3,225 votes before the re-polling decision.
The result of LA-17 Haveli has also generated controversy. PPP candidate and incumbent AJK Prime Minister Faisal Mumtaz Rathore was declared the winner, but PML-N candidate Chaudhry Mohsin Aziz rejected the result and demanded a recount, alleging that the constituency’s mandate had been altered. The Election Commission has been dealing with the dispute.
PML-N comfortably ahead
The PML-N’s current position represents a major political comeback in AJK. The party had secured 24 seats after the first two phases, comprising nine victories in the Mirpur division and 15 in the second phase covering Muzaffarabad and the 12 refugee constituencies.
The party subsequently strengthened its position in the third phase, although several contests remain unsettled. PML-N was already on course for a majority in the 53-member assembly and was expected to gain further seats and reserved seats.
PML-N leaders have openly predicted an even stronger mandate. Adviser to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Rana Sanaullah, said the party expected to form the AJK government with a two-thirds majority. He said the PML-N needed six additional seats beyond its 24-seat tally at that stage to reach the two-thirds threshold.
Shah Ghulam Qadir emerges as strongest contender for premiership
The most closely watched question after the election is who will become the next AJK prime minister. At present, PML-N AJK president Shah Ghulam Qadir appears to be the strongest contender. He has returned to the assembly from Neelum Valley and brings previous experience as speaker of the AJK Legislative Assembly as well as senior party leadership experience. The AJK Assembly’s own members directory lists him as the PML-N member from LA-25 Neelum-I.
Political analysts have identified Qadir as the leading name for the premiership. He is being highlighted as the strongest candidate after several other possible contenders failed to win their constituencies. However, there has been no formal announcement by PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif or the PML-N naming the next AJK premier. In fact, PML-N regional secretary general Chaudhry Tariq Farooq has made clear that the final decision will rest with party supremo Nawaz Sharif in consultation with the senior leadership.
That leaves Raja Farooq Haider as another important name in the discussion. The former AJK prime minister has won his constituency and remains one of the most experienced PML-N politicians in the region. He served as AJK prime minister from 2016 to 2021 and has considerable political influence within the party.
Nevertheless, current situation indicates that Shah Ghulam Qadir is presently ahead of Farooq Haider in the race, while the final decision will ultimately depend on Nawaz Sharif and the PML-N’s internal consultations.
Possible contenders for AJK premiership
At this stage, the race can broadly be viewed as follows:
- Shah Ghulam Qadir – leading contender
Qadir has the strongest combination of factors: he is the PML-N’s AJK president, has returned to the assembly from Neelum Valley, has previously served as speaker and is regarded as a senior organisational figure. His name has emerged repeatedly in post-election speculation.
- Raja Farooq Haider – senior alternative
The former prime minister remains an influential PML-N figure and has returned to the assembly from his home constituency. His previous experience of running an AJK government makes him a natural alternative if the party leadership decides against Qadir.
- Chaudhry Tariq Farooq – possible dark horse
Tariq Farooq has also emerged as an important figure because of his seniority, organisational position as PML-N AJK secretary general and electoral victory from Bhimber. He has, however, publicly emphasised that Nawaz Sharif will make the final decision rather than any individual leader seeking the office for himself.
Who could become speaker?
The speaker’s race is considerably less settled than the premiership. The present Speaker, Chaudhry Latif Akbar of the PPP, is also the acting president of AJK. With the PML-N expected to control the new assembly, the speakership is likely to go to the winning party unless a political arrangement produces a different formula. Latif Akbar was elected speaker in 2023 and has continued to hold the office during the current assembly.
At present, no PML-N candidate has been formally nominated for the post of speaker. The party’s senior parliamentarians, including Chaudhry Tariq Farooq and other experienced legislators, could come under consideration. Tariq Farooq is particularly noteworthy because he is a veteran parliamentarian, former minister and senior PML-N office-bearer who has now returned to the assembly from Bhimber. He can therefore be regarded as one of the possible contenders rather than a confirmed nominee.
Another factor is that the premiership and speakership may be decided together. If Shah Ghulam Qadir is ultimately selected as prime minister, the party may prefer another senior legislator for the speaker’s position in order to maintain regional and political balance.
Race for AJK presidency
The presidency is even more difficult to predict at this stage. The office became vacant following the death of former AJK president Barrister Sultan Mahmood Chaudhry earlier this year. The incumbent arrangement has seen Speaker Chaudhry Latif Akbar perform presidential functions in an acting capacity.
The new assembly is expected to play a decisive role in the election of the next president, but no formal PML-N presidential nominee has emerged so far. Former IPP president and former AJK premier Sardar Tanveer Ilyas had himself suggested during the campaign that a victory could position him for either the presidency or premiership. However, his electoral performance has effectively removed him from serious consideration for the immediate government-formation process.
The presidency could therefore become part of a broader PML-N power-sharing formula. The party leadership may use the office to accommodate a senior politician who is not selected as prime minister or speaker.
Final government formation still several steps away
Despite the PML-N’s commanding position, the formation of the new government cannot be considered complete yet. First, polling must be completed in the constituencies that remain outstanding. The Election Commission has scheduled re-polling in 23 polling stations in Bagh for August 15, while elections in seven constituencies of Poonch and Sudhnoti are expected later. Second, the Election Commission will have to notify the successful candidates and complete the constitutional process for the new assembly.
Third, the reserved seats will have to be allocated, after which the final numerical strength of the parties will become clearer. Only then will the PML-N be able to demonstrate its exact majority and move formally towards the election of the prime minister, speaker and other office-holders.
Political implications
The election marks a significant return of the PML-N to the centre of AJK politics. The party governed the region from 2016 to 2021 under Raja Farooq Haider but was subsequently replaced by the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), followed by a period of political instability that saw several changes of government.
The PTI has boycotted the 2026 elections, alleging that the process would not be free and fair. The PPP, meanwhile, has repeatedly accused the PML-N of electoral irregularities, allegations rejected by PML-N leaders and government officials. The incoming government will consequently face a difficult political environment. It will have to deal not only with opposition allegations but also with the wider unrest and political grievances that have accompanied the elections.
The banned Joint Awami Action Committee’s India-backed armed protests, the dispute over the 12 refugee seats, and demands for greater political and economic rights have created an unusually challenging backdrop for the incoming administration.
What to expect next
The immediate political sequence is therefore likely to be:
August 15: Re-polling in 23 polling stations in LA-15 and LA-16 Bagh.
Later in August: Polling in the remaining seven constituencies of Poonch and Sudhnoti, subject to the Election Commission’s security assessment.
After completion of polling: Notification of all results and allocation of reserved seats.
Following formation of the new assembly: Election of the speaker and deputy speaker.
Government formation: PML-N’s parliamentary party is expected to nominate its candidate for prime minister, with Shah Ghulam Qadir currently the strongest name, followed by senior alternatives including Raja Farooq Haider and, potentially, Chaudhry Tariq Farooq.
Presidential election: A separate contest is expected after the new political setup takes shape, but the identity of the PML-N’s likely presidential nominee remains unclear yet.
For now, therefore, the clearest conclusion is that PML-N has won the political race to form the next AJK government, but the numerical and constitutional final outcome is still pending.
The strongest current signal is that Shah Ghulam Qadir is emerging as the front-runner for the premiership, while the speaker and president slots remain open for internal party negotiations and political balancing.
