PARIS: An intensifying El Niño broke a temperature record in a key zone of the Pacific Ocean in September, the European Union’s climate monitor said on Monday, signalling the exceptional strength of a weather phenomenon that could further accelerate global warming.
Global forecasters have been warning for months that the current El Niño could become the strongest on record. The latest temperature milestone was reached before the phenomenon is expected to peak later this year.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service said sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region, a key area of the tropical Pacific used to monitor El Niño, reached an “all-time high” of 29.70°C last month.
The reading exceeded the peak temperatures recorded during the powerful El Niño episodes of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, underscoring the exceptional intensity of the current event, according to Copernicus. However, the service cautioned that it was too early to declare the current episode the strongest ever recorded.
According to Copernicus, climate change was raising ocean temperatures, potentially making recent El Niño events appear stronger than earlier episodes and complicating historical comparisons.
The service has adopted a new index that accounts for the warming of tropical oceans. According to this measure, the current event has not yet surpassed previous episodes in strength.
Nevertheless, September’s readings pointed to an exceptionally powerful El Niño, particularly because the phenomenon had yet to reach its expected peak, Copernicus said.
Forecasting agencies also differ in the scales they use to assess the phenomenon. On Friday, Japan’s weather agency said El Niño conditions had reached their strongest intensity on record, with temperatures in the monitoring area running 4°C above normal.
Global ocean temperatures set another record
As El Niño strengthens, global average sea surface temperatures reached 21.05°C in September, surpassing the previous September record of 20.92°C set in 2023, according to Copernicus.
The world also experienced its second-hottest September on record, with average surface air temperatures reaching 16.27°C, the service said. September was 1.63°C warmer than the pre-industrial average for 1850-1900.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries committed to keeping global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the rise to 1.5°C. However, the United Nations warned in September that the long-term 1.5°C target would be breached within a matter of years.
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“We are in a new run of months above 1.5°C, and with a strong El Niño still intensifying it is likely to last into 2027,” Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo said.
“Crossing the Paris Agreement’s long-term limit is only a matter of time. How far we overshoot, and for how long, is still up to us,” he added.
Scientists say rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are essential to limit the duration of any overshoot beyond 1.5°C and bring global temperatures down as quickly as possible. Experts have warned that the current El Niño could push global temperatures to a new record in 2027.
El Niño is the warming phase of a natural climate cycle in which sea surface temperatures rise in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, altering wind patterns, atmospheric pressure and rainfall across the world.
These changes can increase the likelihood of droughts and flooding in different regions while adding to the warming caused by human activities. The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months.
