GENEVA: El Niño is expected to intensify further before reaching its peak in December, potentially becoming one of the strongest such events since at least 1950, the United Nations weather agency said on Thursday.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned that the phenomenon could raise temperatures above average across much of the world and alter rainfall patterns, increasing the risks of droughts and floods in different regions.
“El Niño will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December,” the WMO said in its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon in which sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. It can trigger changes in global wind, pressure and rainfall patterns.
The phenomenon generally occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months. It alternates with its cooler counterpart, La Niña, with periods of neutral conditions in between.
‘Strengthening rapidly’
The WMO said sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific were forecast to reach record levels during October-November-December 2026, reflecting the rapid strengthening of the current El Niño.
The forecast is based on a consensus among 13 leading national and international meteorological centres. “El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said.
READ ALSO: El Niño Threatens India with Extreme Rainfall and Floods
She added that there was a near-100 per cent probability that the phenomenon would persist through February 2027 and could rank among the strongest El Niño events recorded since at least 1950.
Saulo said El Niño did not create additional heat but released heat stored in the ocean. “The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release,” she said.
Record sea temperatures
The index used to measure sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific rose from 1.6°C above normal in June to 2.5°C above normal in August.
For October-November-December, the anomaly is forecast to reach about 3.7°C above normal – potentially the highest level recorded since observations began. That would surpass the previous record of 2.6°C recorded during the 2015-16 El Niño.
The previous El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-warmest year on record, while 2024 became the warmest, with global temperatures reaching about 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
Although El Niño generally reaches its peak between November and February, the resulting rise in global temperatures often occurs later. The WMO said the current event was already affecting some regions severely. In parts of Central America, drought linked to the phenomenon has contributed to the deaths of animals and the loss of crops.
