NEW DELHI: Up to 40.5 million people in South Asia could be forced to leave their homes by 2050 under a worst-case climate scenario, the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) has warned, as rising sea levels, floods and drought increasingly threaten livelihoods across the region.
IOM Director General Amy Pope, speaking to the media during a visit to New Delhi on Friday, said climate change was making it harder for communities to grow food, sustain livestock and maintain their livelihoods, increasing the risk of displacement.
She said technology and government action could help limit the damage. “When they can’t produce food, when they can’t feed their livestock, it increases the likelihood of displacement,” Pope said. “The first adaptation is often for people to move.”
The effects are particularly serious in South Asia, where large populations and limited resources leave many communities vulnerable to climate-related disasters.
In Nepal, a mountain and glacier collapse on August 26 triggered deadly flooding, prompting IOM to provide humanitarian assistance to affected communities.
Climate change is also contributing to urbanisation in India, as people leave areas affected by extreme heat and seek shelter in cities, Pope said. “As people seek shelter from heat, they’re going into urban centres,” she added.
Pope warned that global efforts to prepare vulnerable communities for climate change remained underfunded, despite the potentially enormous costs of humanitarian disasters.
“The cost of a humanitarian disaster is in the billions. The cost of investing in some of the resilience measures can be far less,” she said.
She called for greater investment in preventive measures, including improved farming practices, alternative employment training and the relocation of communities repeatedly affected by floods or drought.
Artificial intelligence and improved forecasting could also help governments identify communities at risk before disasters occur, allowing authorities to assist before people are displaced.
“With the advancements in AI forecasting, you can now better anticipate those communities that are at high risk of displacement,” Pope said.
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By combining weather forecasts with information about local livelihoods, governments could identify vulnerable populations and direct resources where they are most needed.
However, securing funding for climate adaptation remains a major challenge, with governments often struggling to navigate the systems available to finance such programmes.
Migration offers opportunities
Pope also highlighted the potential of international migration to help people secure livelihoods while meeting labour shortages in other countries.
South Asia’s established migration networks could provide a foundation for expanding opportunities, provided workers have access to safe and legal routes to overseas employment.
Without such protections, migrants risk exploitation by traffickers and smugglers, including through fraudulent job offers.
Pope said India’s technological capacity could also help workers prepare for changing labour markets as artificial intelligence reshapes employment.
While AI could threaten jobs involving routine analysis of documents and reports, other sectors would continue to depend heavily on human labour.
She said linking workers’ skills training with emerging employment opportunities could help them compete internationally.
“If we can marry that capacity with the labour mobility, so that the workers are being skilled for those jobs as they’re emerging, they will be ahead,” Pope said.
Despite the growing risks posed by climate change, Pope expressed greater optimism about South Asia’s ability to respond than about regions facing the most acute humanitarian crises.
“This is a place where I have more optimism than in places where we’re dealing with the most acute crises,” she said.
