Key Points
- December Brent falls to $96.92 a barrel
- November contract expires at $103.50
- September rally leaves Brent up 14 per cent
ISLAMABAD: Brent crude oil fell below $100 a barrel on Thursday as the more actively traded December contract extended losses after the higher-priced November contract expired, while recovering Gulf exports and rising US crude inventories eased supply concerns.
December Brent crude futures fell 1.1 per cent to $96.92 a barrel by 0720 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 1.4 per cent to $89.18 a barrel. Both benchmarks had gained about $1 a barrel on Wednesday.
The move below $100 needs to be viewed against Wednesday’s contract expiry. The November Brent contract, which expired on September 30, settled at $103.50 a barrel, up 91 cents or 0.9 per cent. The more active December contract, however, settled at $98.03, after gaining $1.87 or 1.9 per cent.
This means the latest decline is not a fresh plunge from above $100 in the same active contract. Rather, the market has shifted into the December contract, which was already trading below the $100 threshold at Wednesday’s close and fell further on Thursday.
Oil prices came under increased downward pressure as signs emerged that the Gulf crude exports were recovering after months of disruption linked to the US-Iran conflict.
Saudi Arabia has resumed oil tanker loadings from Yanbu after restarting operations on its East-West Pipeline. The Saudi Yanbu operations provided an alternative export route and reduced pressure on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman Sachs estimated that Gulf oil exports, including so-called “dark exports” involving vessels operating with their transponders switched off, had recovered to about 23.3 million barrels per day in September.
The figure was close to pre-conflict levels and marked a substantial recovery from the sharp disruption earlier in the year.
US oil inventories improve
US inventories also weighed on prices. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude stocks increased by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended September 25, against market expectations for a decline.
However, the inventory picture was mixed. US gasoline stocks fell by 1.7 million barrels, while distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, declined by 2.3 million barrels. The drawdowns indicated continued pressure on refined fuel supplies even as crude stocks increased.
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The market is also closely watching diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran. Iran said it had received a US response to its latest proposal to restore a ceasefire. In contrast, President Donald Trump denied reports that Washington was prepared to ease sanctions on Iran in exchange for concessions on its nuclear programme.
Any credible progress towards a diplomatic settlement could further reduce the geopolitical premium in oil prices by improving expectations for shipping and crude supplies.
At the same time, continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure remain risks to the recovery in Gulf exports.
Oil posts monthly gains
Despite Thursday’s decline, Brent posted a strong monthly gain in September. The benchmark rose about 14 per cent during the month, its largest monthly increase since July, while WTI gained about 5 per cent.
OPEC+ producers are also expected to maintain their November production targets in their upfront meeting this weekend, keeping the focus on actual Gulf supply recovery rather than a major change in official production policy.
2026 oil trajectory
Oil prices remained exceptionally volatile in 2026 as the US-Iran conflict disrupted Gulf production, shipping and refining.
Brent surged above $100 during the escalation before retreating as Gulf exports gradually recovered.
The latest move below $100 reflects improving crude flows, but continued risks around Hormuz, energy infrastructure and diplomacy leave the market vulnerable to renewed supply disruptions.
