Key Points
- China offers Pakistan a major new non-Basmati market
- Rice exports have fallen sharply from their recent peak
- China could help restore lost export earnings
ISLAMABAD: China’s potential demand for up to $1.5 billion worth of Pakistani hybrid rice could provide a major boost to exports that have suffered a sharp reversal after reaching a record level two years ago.
The opportunity is particularly important because Pakistan’s rice trade is dominated by non-Basmati varieties, the segment most exposed to international price competition and the return of Indian supplies to global markets.
According to the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP), Pakistan exported 5.82 million tonnes of rice worth $3.35 billion in FY2024-25, down from a record 6.01 million tonnes valued at $3.93 billion in FY2023-24.
Non-Basmati rice accounted for 5.01 million tonnes, or more than 86 per cent of total shipments, and generated $2.52 billion.
The decline has since become considerably steeper. Rice exports fell to about $2.29 billion in FY2025-26, with shipments dropping to roughly 4.28 million tonnes, according to official data.
The contraction reflects weaker prices, intense competition, and the return of Indian rice to international markets.
Against that backdrop, the Chinese market offers Pakistan something it urgently needs: a great and potentially stable demand for non-Basmati rice.
Accelerated Rice Export to China
Pakistan’s rice exports to China have already begun accelerating. Chinese customs data showed shipments worth more than $45.19 million in the first quarter of 2026, compared with $7.39 million in the same period of 2025 — an increase of 511 per cent. Semi-or wholly milled rice alone accounted for more than $33.6 million of the latest shipments.
Pakistan exported rice worth more than $62 million to China during 2025, according to Chinese customs data, indicating that the first-quarter 2026 surge was not an isolated development.
Industry estimates that Pakistan could eventually supply as much as $1.5 billion in hybrid rice to China, a potentially transformative expansion from the current base.
If the $1.5 billion represents additional exports rather than shipments diverted from other markets, it would lift Pakistan’s annual rice export earnings from around $2.29 billion to nearly $3.8 billion — an increase of about 65 per cent.
More importantly, such an expansion would take the sector much closer to the $5 billion export level.
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Its established destinations include China, Afghanistan, Kenya, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Oman, and a number of African and European markets, according to the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan.
There is also a strong production-side argument. Pakistan is already a major producer of non-Basmati rice and has experience cultivating hybrid varieties developed with Chinese genetic material.
A sustained Chinese market could encourage exporters to move towards contract farming. It would offer farmers clearer production specifications and buyers greater certainty over volumes and quality.
The potential gains would extend beyond export receipts. Greater demand for hybrid rice could stimulate investment in certified seed, modern milling, storage, quality testing, and traceability.
Higher-yield varieties could also increase exportable surplus without requiring a comparable expansion in cultivated land.
However, the $1.5 billion target should be viewed as a medium-term opportunity rather than an immediate export gain. Pakistan’s current sales to China remain a small fraction of that potential, meaning the country would need to increase shipments many times over.
The main challenge will be consistency. Chinese buyers will require reliable supplies that meet food safety, pesticide residue, and quality standards.
Pakistan will also have to compete on price against established suppliers, including Thailand, Vietnam, and India.
This makes the current surge valuable not simply because of its size, but because it provides an opportunity to establish a stronger foothold before attempting a much larger expansion.
For Pakistan, the strategic objective should therefore be to convert China from a growing destination into a long-term anchor market for non-Basmati rice, without abandoning other markets.
The timing is particularly important. After rice exports fell from nearly $4 billion in FY2023-24 to around $2.3 billion two years later, Pakistan needs both higher volumes and greater market diversification.
China could help Pakistan reverse the decline and revive rice export growth.
