KABUL: The United Nations has projected that close to three million Afghans are expected to return to Afghanistan by the end of 2026, as large-scale returns from neighbouring Iran and Pakistan continue to rise.
According to a UN report released on Tuesday, around 5.9 million Afghans have already returned since September 2023, representing roughly 10 to 12 per cent of Afghanistan’s population. In the first four months of 2026 alone, approximately 600,000 people crossed back into the country from Iran and Pakistan.
The report estimates that a further 1.7 million returns from Iran and 1.1 million from Pakistan are likely over the next eight months, bringing the total close to three million for the year. More than half of the returnees are expected to be women and children, many of whom have limited or no remaining ties to communities in Afghanistan.
According to AFP, UN officials and humanitarian partners have raised concerns over the scale of need, warning that reintegration support is severely underfunded. The agencies have appealed for $100.7 million to provide immediate assistance at key border crossings, while the broader reintegration response is estimated to require $428.5 million.
Aid organisations say current funding levels are insufficient, with only around 40 per cent of the most vulnerable returnees able to be reached despite nearly 70 per cent meeting vulnerability criteria.
A separate assessment highlighted a sharp decline in humanitarian financing for Afghanistan, dropping from $1.62 billion in 2024 to $0.91 billion in 2025 — a fall of nearly 44 per cent — raising concerns over the country’s ability to absorb the influx.
