WASHINGTON: The phenomenon El Nino weather pattern has arrived, the US weather agency said Thursday, and scientists expect the pattern synonymous with droughts, floods and soaring temperatures will intensify into the end of the year, potentially to historic strength.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in its latest advisory that there is a 63 percent chance of a “very strong El Nino” developing between November and January, placing it among the most powerful events recorded since modern records began in 1950.
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The pattern influences global wind and rainfall systems and is often associated with extreme weather across different regions of the world.
Meteorologist Haley Thiem said in an explanatory video released by NOAA that “El Nino is here, and it could be one for the history books.”
An El Niño Advisory has been issued and you may have recently heard the term "Super El Niño". One of our meteorologists explains the terms NOAA uses to describe ENSO intensity and some basics of what El Niño is and is not.
The forecast calls for El Niño to strengthen into the… pic.twitter.com/intqhJXc3T
— National Weather Service (@NWS) June 11, 2026
Scientists fear the phenomenon will add to the effects of human-induced climate change, which has already driven global temperatures to near-record levels through the burning of fossil fuels.
According to NOAA, a strong El Nino could significantly influence weather patterns worldwide in the coming months.
The agency said major El Nino events have historically been linked to drought conditions in parts of the Amazon basin, Indonesia and Australia, disruptions to India’s monsoon system, and significant shifts in tropical rainfall patterns.
El Nino typically develops every two to seven years and usually lasts between nine and 12 months.
Although the phenomenon often peaks towards the end of the year, the heat stored in the oceans is released more gradually into the atmosphere. As a result, its full impact on global temperatures is frequently felt in the following year.
Marc Alessi of the Union of Concerned Scientists warned that the combination of climate change and a powerful El Nino could push global temperatures to unprecedented levels.
“The combination of fossil fuel-caused climate change and a potential super El Nino event makes a terrible team,” Alessi said in a statement to AFP.
He added that there was growing evidence that climate change driven by fossil fuel emissions was making El Nino events more intense.
Experts warned that the phenomenon could have severe humanitarian consequences in vulnerable regions.
Mohamed Adow, director of the Nairobi-based climate and energy think tank Power Shift Africa, said El Nino represented “a deadly siren to be feared” for millions of people around the world.
“It means failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again,” he said.
Governments in several countries of Central America’s Dry Corridor have already raised alert levels because of concerns about worsening drought conditions.
The region includes parts of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua, where El Nino is associated with reduced rainfall and agricultural losses.
The Guatemalan government has prepared 1.1 million food rations in anticipation of a potential food security emergency, according to officials.
Adow said communities across East Africa were also vulnerable after enduring repeated cycles of droughts and floods in recent years.
“The extremes will likely strike communities already battered by droughts and floods,” he said.
