WASHINGTON: Democrats are heading into Tuesday’s US midterm elections with a clear lead in national polling for the House of Representatives, while several fiercely contested Senate and gubernatorial races could determine the balance of political power during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term.
With just one day remaining before polling stations open on November 3, the elections are emerging as the first major nationwide test of Trump’s presidency since his return to the White House.
The outcome will determine control of both chambers of Congress, the leadership of dozens of states and the direction of federal policymaking until the next presidential election.
Nearly 50 million Americans have already cast their ballots, reflecting strong early voting ahead of Tuesday’s polling. Voters will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 35 senators and governors in 36 states. The Senate elections comprise 33 regular contests and two special elections.
Republicans currently control the Senate with 53 seats in the 100-member chamber, while Democrats hold 45 seats. Two independents, Bernie Sanders and Angus King, caucus with Democrats, giving the party an effective strength of 47 seats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority.
In the House, Republicans hold 218 seats against 214 for Democrats, while one independent is aligned with Republicans. Two seats are vacant. A majority requires 218 seats, leaving control of the chamber particularly vulnerable to relatively small electoral swings.
National polling suggests Democrats are in a strong position to regain the House. RealClearPolitics ‘ average of surveys conducted between October 9 and 30 puts Democrats at 51.8 per cent against 43.3 per cent for Republicans, giving them an 8.5-point advantage.
Other surveys indicate a similar trend. An NBC News poll conducted from October 28 to 30 showed Democrats leading 52 per cent to 45 per cent. Emerson College recorded a 52-42 advantage, while Reuters/Ipsos put the Democratic lead at 53-44 and CBS News at 53-45. A Harvard-Harris survey showed a narrower 52-48 margin.
However, national polling does not necessarily translate into seats because House elections are contested separately across 435 congressional districts.
According to its October 30 ratings, the Cook Political Report classified 222 House seats as leaning towards Democrats, 195 towards Republicans and 18 as toss-ups. The figures combine its solid, likely and lean categories and represent assessments of electoral competitiveness rather than projected results.
Several Republican-held constituencies have become increasingly competitive, including seats in California, Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.
Democratic-held seats are also under pressure, particularly in Florida, North Carolina and Texas. Cook has additionally identified Alabama’s second district, Florida’s ninth and Maine’s second as Democratic seats leaning towards Republicans.
Nevertheless, some projections suggest Democrats could secure as many as 240 House seats, although the outcome will depend on individual district contests.
Highly competitive
The battle for the Senate is considerably tighter, with seven contests rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. Six of these seats are currently held by Republicans, while one is Democratic.
Among the closely watched contests is Alaska, where Republican Senator Dan Sullivan faces former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola.
In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson is challenging Democrat Josh Turek following Senator Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek re-election. Kansas is another closely contested state, where Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton.
Maine has emerged as a significant battleground, with Republican Senator Susan Collins facing Democrat Troy Jackson in a state carried by Democrats in the 2024 presidential election.
In Michigan, Muslim American Abdul El-Sayed is defending the Democratic-held seat following Gary Peters’s retirement. He faces Republican Mike Rogers.
Ohio’s special Senate election pits Republican Senator Jon Husted against former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown, while Texas has become another closely watched contest, with Republican Ken Paxton facing Democrat James Talarico for the seat vacated by John Cornyn.
North Carolina presents another important opportunity for Democrats, with former Democratic governor Roy Cooper facing Republican Michael Whatley for the seat vacated by Thom Tillis.
Democrats must also defend seats in Georgia, where Senator Jon Ossoff faces Republican Mike Collins; New Hampshire, where Chris Pappas faces John Sununu; and Minnesota, where Peggy Flanagan faces Michele Tafoya.
Other notable contests include Florida, Nebraska, South Carolina and Mississippi, where Republican incumbents and candidates face competitive challenges from Democrats or independents.
Political analysts caution that control of the Senate will depend on the combined outcome of several contests rather than any single state.
Political uncertainty
The elections will also determine governors in 36 states, with Republicans currently controlling 26 governorships and Democrats 24. Several seats are open because of term limits or other reasons, creating opportunities for both parties.
Georgia, Kansas and Nevada are among the most closely watched gubernatorial contests, although election-rating organisations differ in their assessments of the races.
In Georgia, former Democratic mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Republican Rick Jackson in the contest to succeed term-limited Governor Brian Kemp. Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo, a Republican, is seeking another term against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford.
Kansas has emerged as another battleground, with Democrat Cindy Holscher challenging Republican Ty Masterson. The Cook Political Report rates the contest as a toss-up, while Decision Desk HQ considers it leaning Republican.
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In Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton faces Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Decision Desk HQ considers the contest a toss-up, while Cook rates it as leaning Democratic.
Other competitive gubernatorial contests are being held in Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Texas, Oregon and New Hampshire.
Early voting tops 49 million
Early voting has been substantial across the country. According to On Point Politics’ tracker, more than 49.4 million ballots had been cast across 47 reporting states by November 1. Of these, approximately 23.1 million were submitted by mail and 26.3 million in person.
In states reporting voters’ party registration, registered Democrats accounted for around 40.4 per cent of early voters, compared with 32.9 per cent for registered Republicans. The remainder were independents or members of smaller political parties.
However, these figures reflect voter registration rather than actual voting preferences and should not be interpreted as an indication of the final outcome. States also differ in how they report early voting figures, while millions of additional Americans are expected to vote on Election Day.
Electoral test
At the heart of the election is public sentiment towards the first two years of Trump’s second presidency. Democrats have focused their campaigns on the economy, healthcare, inflation, democratic institutions and federal government policies. Republicans, meanwhile, have emphasised immigration, border security, taxation, energy and their governing agenda.
The results will have significant implications for Trump’s ability to advance his legislative priorities. A Democratic takeover of either chamber could intensify congressional scrutiny of his administration, complicate the passage of legislation and influence federal budget negotiations.
Conversely, retaining control of both chambers would allow Republicans to continue advancing the president’s agenda with fewer legislative obstacles.
With Democrats enjoying a substantial national polling advantage in the House race and several Republican-held Senate seats facing serious challenges, Tuesday’s elections could reshape the country’s political landscape. However, the final balance of power will remain uncertain until votes are counted across the country.
