WASHINGTON, USA: The US intelligence community has not observed any shift in Russia’s preferences for the upcoming US presidential election, indicating that Moscow continues to favor Republican Donald Trump.
A US intelligence official briefed reporters on election security, stating that the assessments from previous elections remain unchanged. These assessments had previously found that Moscow had tried to help Trump win in the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton and in the 2020 election against President Joe Biden.
The official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) said, “We have not observed a shift in Russia’s preferences for the presidential race from past elections, given the role the US is playing with regard to Ukraine and broader policy toward Russia.”
This statement reinforces the idea that Russia’s stance is influenced by the US’s current policies on Ukraine and its broader approach towards Russia.
Donald Trump, the former president and presumptive Republican nominee, has often criticized the scale of US military support for Ukraine, which has amounted to approximately $60 billion since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
He has also referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “the greatest salesman ever.” Two of Trump’s national security advisers have even proposed a plan to end US military aid to Ukraine unless Ukraine opens talks with Russia to end the conflict.
Regarding NATO, Trump has suggested that he would “encourage” Russia to act freely against any alliance member that did not spend enough on defence, indicating that he would not necessarily come to their defence. This stance is in direct conflict with the NATO charter, which obliges members to defend each other in case of an attack.
During the briefing, the ODNI official, alongside colleagues from the FBI and the National Coordinator for Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience, emphasized that election influence efforts are aimed at shaping the outcome of polls or undermining democratic processes, whereas interference efforts aim to disrupt the US’s ability to hold a free and fair vote.
The official noted that while no plans by any country to “degrade or disrupt” the November elections have been monitored, Russia has begun using social media and other means to influence specific groups of US voters in battleground states.
The official stated, “Russia is undertaking a whole of government approach to influence the election, including the presidential, Congress, and public opinion.” This includes promoting divisive narratives and denigrating specific politicians, although no names were specified. The tactics, primarily executed through social media efforts, involve using US voices to amplify their narratives. Additionally, Russia has been seeking to influence US audiences through “encrypted direct messaging channels,” though specifics were not provided.
In contrast, China is not currently planning to influence the outcome of the presidential race. However, Beijing is trying to expand its capability to collect and monitor data from social media platforms, likely to better understand and eventually manipulate public opinion. Generative artificial intelligence is being increasingly used as a “malign influence accelerant” to more convincingly tailor video and other content ahead of the November vote, according to the official.
The US intelligence community remains vigilant in monitoring and countering foreign influence efforts as the 2024 presidential election approaches, with a particular focus on Russia’s ongoing attempts to shape the electoral outcome.
