LONDON: The El Niño weather pattern expected this year could become the strongest in more than a century, with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific forecast to reach exceptionally high levels, Britain’s Met Office said on Friday.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office, described the developing climate event as unprecedented, saying forecast models indicate that El Niño could reach a peak of more than 3°C above the long-term baseline.
“We are expecting the biggest El Niño for over a century,” Scaife said, adding that he had never seen such an intense El Niño signal in the agency’s forecasts.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops when surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific become unusually warm. It can alter global wind patterns, atmospheric pressure and rainfall, often raising average temperatures worldwide.
The current warming in the region is already substantial. According to the Climate Brink dashboard, temperatures are about 2.6°C above a rolling 30-year average.
Scaife said the unusual warmth, already approaching two degrees in some measurements, was expected to have particularly pronounced consequences across tropical regions.
Among the areas facing the greatest risks are parts of South America and the western Pacific, where the Met Office expects severe drought conditions.
Such prolonged shifts in rainfall could affect agriculture, water supplies and food security.
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“These are not short-term weather forecasts,” Scaife said, stressing that the anticipated changes represented persistent, long-term climate conditions rather than isolated weather events.
He warned that the consequences could extend beyond rainfall and temperature, with El Niño known to influence wider environmental and economic systems, including food production and global food security.
The phenomenon could also affect weather patterns in Britain. Scaife said the UK could experience increased rainfall and stormier conditions during the autumn, particularly around November.
The Met Office’s forecast comes as scientists monitor unusually warm waters across the tropical Pacific, where changes in ocean temperatures can have far-reaching effects on weather patterns around the world.
