Runoff Likely as Erdogan Defeats Chief Challenger with a Narrow Margin

May 15, 2023 at 12:20 PM
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ANKARA, TURKEY: Turkey prepared for its first election runoff on Monday following a dramatic election night that saw President Recep Tayyip Erdogan narrowly defeat his secular opponent but failed to win the first round.

 

Shortly after midnight, Erdogan announced that he was prepared to serve as president for five years in front of a sea of enthusiastic supporters.

 

The final results of Turkey’s most significant election since the end of the Ottoman Empire indicated that Erdogan, who has been in power since 2003 and is unbeaten in more than a dozen national votes, fell barely short of the required 50 percent of the vote to win.

 

The 69-year-old leader said to cheers, “I wholeheartedly believe that we will continue to serve our people in the next five years.”

 

Erdogan also said that his Islamic ruling party and its ultranationalist allies had bagged a clear majority in the parliament. Figures reported by the Anadolu state news agency indicate that Erdogan picked up 49.3 percent of the vote.

 

Opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu was trailing by 45.0 percent, which is a disappointing result after late pre-election polls. He was shown in the lead. On May 28, Turkey will hold its first presidential runoff in its 100-year history, which is mainly Muslim but officially secular. At first, Kilicdaroglu’s camp contested the results and claimed to be ahead. But the 74-year-old looked slightly sad as he spoke with reporters early Monday and noted that a runoff was inevitable.

 

He said, “If our people say second round, we will win in the second round. More than 50% of the population wants to see a change in society.”

Runoff Likely as Erdogan Defeats Chief Challenger with a Narrow Margin 2

 

The lira fell against the euro and dollar on investor disappointment that Erdogan’s unconventional economics era might not end.

 

Fervent support 

 

A referendum on the longest-serving leader of Turkey and his Islamic-based party reportedly saw a turnout of close to 90%. Erdogan has led a nation of 85 million through one of its most divisive and transformative eras.

 

Turkey has grown into a geopolitical heavyweight and a military that plays roles in Syria and Ukraine conflicts. The NATO member’s footprint in the Middle East and Europe makes the outcome of elections as critical for Brussels and Washington as it is for Moscow and Damascus. In large portions of conservative Turkey, where growth soared while he was in power, Erdogan is idolized. More religious voters also well-received his move to relax prohibitions on headscarves imposed during the secular era and to open more Islamic schools. 

 

Recep Turktan, an Istanbul voter, told AFP after casting his ballot, “The most crucial thing is that we do not divide Turkey. We will perform our duty. I say, go on with Erdogan.”

 

“We all miss democracy”

 

However, Erdogan’s first decade of economic growth and improving ties with Europe was followed by a second decade marked by social and political unrest in the country. After a failed coup attempt in 2016, he carried out extensive purges that shook Turkish society and made him an increasingly uneasy partner for the West.

 

Foreign allies and Turkish voters now have a clear alternative with the rise of Kilicdaroglu and his six-party opposition alliance, the broad-based coalition that Erdogan excelled at building throughout his career.

 

A two-week runoff could give time to Erdogan to reframe the debate and regroup. But he will still be hounded by Turkey’s most dire economic crisis since the 1990s.

 

The government’s bungled response to a February earthquake that took over 50,000 lives has traumatized many.

 

After voting in the capital Ankara, Kilicdaroglu said, “We all missed democracy.” Pre-election polls show Kilicdaroglu will win the youth vote, nearly 10 % of the electorate, by a two-to-one margin.

 

“Erdogan can build as many weapons and tanks as he wants. However, I have no respect for that if I have no penny in my pocket,” a student from the university Kivanc Dal said.

 

Courting kingmaker vote 

 

However, others expressed unwavering faith in the person who overthrew a half-century of corruption-riddled secular rule.

 

Deniz Aydemir, a Nursery schoolteacher, asked how a coalition of six parties could rule Turkey, Erdigan’s favorite attack line during the election campaign. She said, “Yes, there are high prices, but at least there is prosperity.”

 

He labelled the opposition a “pro-LGBT” lobby that took instructions from outlawed Kurdish militants and was funded by the West. He also tried to win over official sector workers by offering them huge pay raises in the months before the elections.

 

A little-known independent candidate who received 5% of the vote and became a kingmaker will now be the centre of much attention.

 

Sinan Ogan was kicked out of an ultranationalist party that later allied with Erdogan and joined the campaign a few months before the elections.

 

Ogan said Sunday, “We will not say that we will support this or that candidate. We will hold consultations with their representatives before deciding anything.” — AFP

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