KHARTOUM: The preliminary projections by United Nations agencies and aid groups to determine whether famine should be declared officially showed that famine is growing in Sudan and an estimated 756,000 people could face catastrophic food shortages by September this year.
The preliminary results, as of June 1, reflect a rapidly worsening situation in the war-torn country. The previous projection from December showed that 17.7 million people, or 37% of the population, faced high levels of food insecurity, with none considered in a catastrophic situation.
Now, an estimated 25.6 million people, or 54% of the population, are facing critical shortages, including more than nine million in an emergency situation or worse.
The latest projection is preliminary and subject to change, pending approval by the military-controlled Sudanese government and UN and international agencies. The government has previously denied that the country is experiencing famine.
The new analysis was conducted by the Rome-based Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), an initiative of UN agencies, regional bodies, and aid groups. The data is expected to be incomplete due to security threats, roadblocks, and telecommunications outages in Sudan that have hindered assessments.
The IPC, which analyzes food insecurity and malnutrition data, hopes to publish a report on Sudan in the coming weeks, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Fatima Eltahir, a Sudanese government official and the IPC’s chairwoman in Sudan, told Reuters, “We are not done yet. There are no final results.”
Lavonne Cloke, an IPC spokesperson, stated that the analysis is “ongoing,” and it is not yet clear when it will be finalized.
The latest projection for Sudan comes at a time when another conflict zone, Gaza, is also experiencing severe food shortages. In March, the IPC warned that famine was imminent, with 1.1 million people, about half of Gaza’s population, expected to experience catastrophic food insecurity.
In Sudan, fighting broke out in the capital Khartoum in April 2023 and quickly spread across the country, reigniting ethnic violence in the western Darfur region and forcing millions to flee. The number of people internally displaced in Sudan due to current and past conflicts has surpassed 10 million, the United Nations migration agency reported this week. The country is already experiencing the world’s largest displacement crisis.
Last month, UN agencies warned that Sudan was at “imminent risk of famine.” About 3.6 million children are acutely malnourished, according to a joint statement by UN chiefs, including the high commissioner for human rights.
Whether a famine will be declared in Sudan remains unclear. Governments sometimes challenge famine data and projections. To date, UN agencies and other organizations have declared famines only twice since the IPC warning system was created 20 years ago: in Somalia in 2011 and in South Sudan in 2017.
The determination of whether to declare a famine is based on a scale used by the IPC that has five classifications, ranging from Phase 1, indicating no serious food issues, to Phase 5, representing either a catastrophe or, worse, a famine. Phases 3, 4, and 5 are all considered crisis situations or worse.
The ratings are determined using a complex set of technical criteria, including measurements of starvation, malnutrition, and mortality. In areas formally designated as Phase 5 famine, more than two people per 10,000 are dying daily, among other criteria.
The latest preliminary IPC projection for Sudan states that between June and September, an estimated 756,000 people will face Phase 5 catastrophe. This means the country hasn’t technically reached widespread famine conditions but is still considered to be in a major crisis.
The projection identified 32 localities and clusters where the population was suffering catastrophic food shortages. These included two areas where 15% of the population faced IPC 5 catastrophic conditions – the city of al-Fashir, the capital of North Darfur, and a nearby camp for internally displaced people called Zamzam. Three other areas were cited where 10% of the population had reached the threshold.
Many of the areas in the projection were seized by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has been fighting the Sudanese army.
On Tuesday, a top US diplomat told Reuters that parts of Sudan are already in famine, adding that the extent of extreme hunger remained unclear.
“I think we know we are in famine,” said Tom Perriello, the US special envoy to Sudan. “I think the question is how much famine, how much of the country, and for how long.”
