Key Points
- Brent crude falls to about $76 per barrel as supply concerns ease
- Iran has more than 120 million barrels available for export or storage release
- Analysts see potential for exports to rise by up to one million barrels per day
- Additional Iranian supplies could improve market stability and energy security
ISLAMABAD: Global oil traders are increasingly focused on the scale and speed of Iran’s return to international energy markets after the United States granted a 60-day waiver allowing trade in Iranian crude oil and petroleum products.
Although many refiners remain cautious about committing to new purchases, analysts believe the move could pave the way for a meaningful increase in global oil supplies, helping ease market tightness and reducing concerns over energy security, according to Reuters.
Oil prices continued to retreat on Wednesday as markets assessed the implications of the diplomatic breakthrough.
Brent crude fell to around $76.30 per barrel. Likewise, US West Texas Intermediate traded near $72.43, extending a sharp decline from levels above $80 reached during disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year.
Traders cited improving shipping conditions in the Gulf and expectations of additional Iranian exports as major factors behind the decline.
The central question for the market is no longer whether Iranian oil will return, but how much and how quickly.
Iran already possesses substantial volumes that could reach buyers in a relatively short period. Tanker-tracking data indicate that approximately 126 million barrels of crude oil and condensate are currently afloat or in storage, with roughly half destined for Asian markets.
Some maritime intelligence firms estimate that Iran has already exported around 36 million barrels since mid-June and retains a comparable volume ready for shipment.
Several industry forecasts suggest that Iran could increase crude production and exports significantly if the current diplomatic momentum continues.
Market intelligence firm Kpler estimates Iranian crude production could rise to around 3.5 million barrels per day by August, exceeding pre-conflict levels.
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Meanwhile, long-term assessments by the United States Energy Information Administration indicate Iran could increase crude production to approximately 3.8 million barrels per day within six months of comprehensive sanctions relief, according to Kpler.
Such projections imply that between 500,000 and 1 million additional barrels per day could gradually enter global markets, a volume large enough to influence prices and improve supply balances but not so large as to trigger a collapse in oil markets, according to CryptoRank.
The prospect of increased Iranian exports is being viewed positively by many consumers and importing nations.
At the time of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year, markets feared the loss of several million barrels per day from the Gulf, driving Brent crude above $120 per barrel at one stage and raising concerns about inflation, fuel costs and economic growth.
Additional Iranian supplies could help rebuild market buffers and reduce the risk of future price spikes.
Prospective buyers of Iranian oil
China is expected to remain the largest buyer of Iranian crude in the near term.
According to U.S. government estimates, Iranian exports to China exceeded 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025, accounting for nearly all of Iran’s overseas crude sales.
Existing commercial relationships and established shipping arrangements position Chinese refiners to absorb much of the initial increase in exports, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Other Asian buyers are proceeding more cautiously. Refiners in India, Japan and several other countries have indicated that existing inventories and alternative supply contracts limit their immediate need for Iranian crude.
However, many market participants acknowledge that a sustained easing of sanctions could eventually encourage broader participation, especially if banking, insurance and shipping services continue to normalise.
Analysts note that Iran’s oil sector enters this new phase from considerable resilience.
Despite years of sanctions, the country had already rebuilt exports to roughly 1.6 million barrels per day before the latest diplomatic breakthrough. It demonstrated an ability to maintain production capacity and preserve customer relationships.
For global markets, the return of Iranian oil represents more than an increase in supply. It signals a potential shift from crisis management toward market normalisation after months of geopolitical disruption.
If negotiations continue to progress and sanctions relief expands beyond the current temporary waiver, traders believe Iran could once again become a major stabilising force in global energy markets.
