Key points
- Disconnect between India’s military operations, political objectives: Sawhney
- Expert says Army’s role in IIOJ&K has become “open-ended”
- Indian military needs credible deterrence and warfighting capabilities: Analyst
ISLAMABAD: Noted defence analyst and former Indian Army officer Pravin Sawhney has warned that the Indian Army is “unfit for modern war” and is ill-equipped to face emerging threats.
Sawhney, who is also an author, highlighted what he called a fundamental disconnect between India’s military operations and its political objectives, particularly in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).
Sun Tzu said: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.
Problem is Modi India does not know either of them. Let me break this down. Start with know yourself:
1. In 34 years (since 1991) of doing Counter Terror ops, India army…— Pravin Sawhney (@PravinSawhney) April 23, 2025
“In 34 years (since 1991) of doing Counter Terror ops, India army still does not know that to end this menace, it needs credible deterrence & warfighting capabilities to compel Pakistan Army to end its game in J&K. It does not have either,” he said in a post on X.
“Open-ended”
He emphasised that the Indian Army’s role in Kashmir, a region entangled in geopolitical, political, and demographic complexities, has become “open-ended”.
“Moreover, since Kashmir is mix of geopolitical, political, social, economic, demographic issues, it is way beyond Army’s mandate. So, Army should have asked politicians (a) what the End-State is (b) what is the time available to it to accomplish the former. Army’s role cannot be open-ended,” Sawhney said.
Highlighting what he sees as a major failure of strategic clarity, Sawhney questioned why the military had not demanded a clearly defined end-state from the political leadership. “Without this clarity, structural reforms in the military are money down the drain,” he argued.
“Clueless and dangerous”
He also took aim at retired military officers frequently seen on television, accusing them of conflating counter-terror operations with conventional warfare. “They are not the same,” he said bluntly, calling their public commentary “clueless and dangerous.”
“After 5 August 2019, Chinese leaders have repeatedly said they support Pakistan’s sovereignty. This means that PLA’s non kinetic capabilities (huge after its April 2024 reforms) will be available to Pak military in peacetime and hot war.”
Sawhney also pointed out that in every war with Pakistan, the operational military line has held—signaling parity at the operational level. “Now with PLA support, even a fool should understand the likely outcome of the next war,” he said grimly.
“Hugely vulnerable”
“In next Indo-Pak war, Indian Army logistics lifeline within J&K will be hugely vulnerable. So, Indian military will be forced to fight two formidable wars: One within to secure logistics. Second with Pak military supported by PLA,” he said.
Criticising the Modi government’s foreign and defence policies, Sawhney claimed that headline-making actions like the 2016 surgical strikes and 2019 Balakot air raids only revealed India’s operational vulnerabilities rather than strength.
