Key Points
- Pakistan agriculture growth was revised higher to 3.50 per cent, on stronger wheat and maize production
- Industry slowed to 3.34 per cent, while services eased to 3.81 per cent.
- The economy expanded to Rs 126.4 trillion ($450.4 billion), with per capita income reaching $1,896
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan revised its economic growth estimate downward for the fiscal year ending June 2026, with the country’s official statistics agency reporting on Monday that gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 3.65 per cent, slightly below the earlier estimate of 3.70 per cent.
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) presented these revisions to the 118th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC), the government body responsible for finalising Pakistan’s national income estimates. The NAC approved the revised figures based on updated data across agriculture, industry and services.
The new estimate marks a modest improvement over the previous fiscal year’s economic performance and reflects revisions to production, manufacturing and services data collected after the initial assessment.
Pakistan’s economy was valued at Rs 126.4 trillion ($450.4 billion) in FY2026, up from Rs 114.9 trillion ($408.7 billion) a year earlier. Per capita income rose to Rs 531,897, equivalent to $1,896.
Pakistan agriculture still leads upward revisions
Agriculture recorded the biggest upward revision, with annual growth raised to 3.50 per cent from the previously estimated 2.89 per cent.
Stronger wheat and maize output drove the improvement, lifting growth in important crops from 0.65 per cent to 1.59 per cent.
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Other crops also accelerated from 2.43 per cent to 4.28 per cent, supported by higher production of pulses, fruits, tomatoes, oilseeds and green fodder.
Livestock growth was revised slightly lower to 3.71 per cent from 3.75 per cent, while forestry expanded by 10.80 per cent and fishing by 1.39 per cent.
Pakistan manufacturing revision slows industry
Overall industrial growth was revised down to 3.34 per cent from 3.51 per cent.
Mining and quarrying improved significantly, rising to 1.52 per cent from 0.38 per cent, supported by increased production of natural gas, crude oil and coal.
However, the estimate of large-scale manufacturing — a key measure of industrial activity tracked through Pakistan’s Quantum Index of Manufacturing — slipped to 5.01 per cent from 6.11 per cent, reducing the sector’s overall contribution.
Services growth moderates
The services sector, Pakistan’s largest contributor to GDP, slowed to 3.81 per cent from an earlier estimate of 4.09 per cent, although all major segments remained in positive territory.
Wholesale and retail trade weakened to 2.37 per cent, reflecting slower manufacturing activity and lower imports.
Transport and storage strengthened to 3.23 per cent, helped by improvements in railway, maritime and aviation services.
Information and communication emerged as one of the strongest-performing sectors, with growth revised up to 9.53 per cent from 7.52 per cent.
Finance and insurance also improved to 4.23 per cent, driven by a stronger insurance industry.
Quarterly growth revised
The committee also approved revised quarterly GDP figures for FY2026, adjusting earlier estimates for the first three quarters and confirming fourth-quarter growth.
First-quarter growth was revised marginally lower to 3.89 per cent from 3.92 per cent.
Second-quarter growth rose to 4.31 per cent, while the third quarter was raised to 4.42 per cent, reflecting stronger agricultural performance than previously recorded.
The fourth quarter expanded by 2.0 per cent, with agriculture expansion at 3.71 per cent and services at 3.62 per cent, while industry contracted 4.70 per cent during the period.
The revisions highlight how updated production data can reshape annual economic estimates even after initial figures are released, offering policymakers a more complete picture of Pakistan’s economic performance.
