Key Points
- Brent holds above $100 while US crude trades below $90
- G7 emergency reserve release reduces supply fears
- Stronger Gulf exports fail to set off shipping and refining risks
ISLAMABAD: Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as rising Middle East crude exports and the Group of Seven (G7) plans to release emergency fuel reserves eased immediate supply concerns, but attacks on shipping kept the market highly volatile.
Brent crude futures traded around $100.35 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil was around $89.40. Despite downward pressure, Brent stood above the psychologically important $100 level.
The latest price movement reflects a tug-of-war between improving physical oil flows and persistent security risks across the Arabian Gulf.
Markets have also been encouraged by the G7 agreement to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and refined fuels from emergency reserves over four months, with a substantial diesel release planned during the first 20 days.
Gulf oil flows improve
Shipping data indicate that Middle Eastern oil exports recovered sharply during September despite continuing risks around the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through which a major share of global oil trade normally passes.
South Africans will pay a record price for gasoline as the latest oil shocks caused by the Iran war catch up with the monthly adjustments made by the government at the pump https://t.co/uU0RFGZBFb
— Bloomberg (@business) October 5, 2026
Provisional data from shipping analytics firms showed regional crude exports reaching 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, with flows exceeding pre-war levels on 14 days during September.
The stronger flows have reduced immediate fears of a physical crude shortage. But they have not restored normal market conditions because tanker operators still face security threats, higher insurance costs and logistical complications.
READ ALSO: Oil Prices Ease As Middle East Exports Recover Despite Hormuz Risks
The distinction is increasingly important for consumers. Crude oil may be moving again, but refined fuels, particularly diesel, remain much tighter.
Diesel shortage keeps pressure high
Several Middle Eastern refineries have suffered damage during the conflict. Disruptions to Russian refining capacity and reduced exports from some major suppliers have further tightened supplies.
The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that crude shipments through Hormuz have recovered substantially, but refined-product shipments remain far below normal levels.
The result is a shortage of the fuels most directly used by trucks, agricultural machinery, industry and other parts of the real economy.
G7 reserve release contains prices
The G7 has ordered the release of the remaining 100 million barrels under its March emergency-stock commitment over four months. The G7 reserve release is providing another bearish influence on crude prices. The coordinated plan, involving up to 100 million barrels of oil and fuel products, is intended to increase availability in a disrupted market.
The International Energy Agency will coordinate the release over four months, focusing on diesel supplies. The move is designed to ease the immediate supply squeeze rather than permanently change global oil fundamentals.
Saudi Arabia has also increased crude shipments, helping push regional exports closer to pre-war levels. But the market remains vulnerable to any fresh attack on tankers, pipelines, ports or refineries.
For now, traders are therefore balancing stronger physical supply against continuing geopolitical risks.
Brent’s position around $100 a barrel shows the market is less fearful of an outright crude shortage, but still unwilling to price the war and shipping risks as resolved.
Oil’s 2026 rollercoaster remains firmly in place: prices have repeatedly swung between sharp gains on supply fears and steep declines whenever additional barrels appear likely to reach the market.
With the Strait of Hormuz still exposed to attacks and global refining capacity under pressure, another disruption could quickly reverse the latest easing trend.
