Key Points
- Non-Iranian Middle Eastern crude oil exports rose to over 18 million barrels per day on four days
- Kpler recorded flows of 19.5 to 22.5 million barrels per day on the same days, despite tanker attacks
- UKMTO continued reporting attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz into October.
ISLAMABAD: Middle Eastern crude oil exports excluding Iran have risen above their pre-war level for the first time since the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran on February 28, despite continued attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz.
The increase indicates that regional oil producers and shippers have adapted significantly to disruptions caused by the conflict, using alternative export routes and logistical arrangements to maintain shipments.
Ship-tracking data from Kpler showed crude exports from the region exceeded the pre-war benchmark on September 24 and on September 27, 28 and 29, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. The pre-war average was about 18 million barrels per day.
The seven-day moving average had reached 18.5 million barrels per day by October 1, according to the latest data.
The data also indicate that the oil trade has not simply returned to its pre-war pattern. Producers have rebuilt export flows through a combination of Hormuz transits, alternative terminals, pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers.
Kpler said that in September about 60 per cent of non-Iranian Gulf crude physically crossed Hormuz, while 23 per cent was loaded outside the strait, mainly around Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, and another 17 per cent moved through the Red Sea.
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This means the return of export volumes above the pre-war benchmark reflects a major restructuring of regional oil logistics rather than a restoration of normal maritime conditions.
Hormuz flows recover despite attacks
The latest export figures coincide with continued warnings from maritime authorities about the security of commercial shipping.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which provides verified maritime-security information to commercial shipping, recorded a series of attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz at the end of September and beginning of October.
UKMTO reported attacks numbered 144, 145 and 146 on September 30, followed by another tanker attack on October 1 and further incidents on October 2. On October 2, an unknown projectile hit a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a small fire and power loss.
On October 4, UKMTO reported another attack inside the strait that damaged its engine room. The crew was safe, and no environmental impact had been reported.
UKMTO has advised vessels to transit with caution and report suspicious activity, making clear that the increase in oil flows does not mean the waterway has become safe or returned to normal operating conditions.
The US Maritime Administration (MARAD) likewise continues to classify the security environment in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman as high risk.
Oil trade adapts to war
The scale of the logistical adjustment is reflected in the changing routes used by Gulf producers.
Saudi Arabia has used its East-West Pipeline to move crude to Yanbu on the Red Sea. However, the United Arab Emirates has relied on its pipeline to Fujairah, allowing cargoes to reach export terminals without making the full journey through Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia appeared to be the largest source of the September recovery, while the United Arab Emirates and Iraq were also major exporters.
Other independent estimates point in the same direction. JPMorgan said late last month that Middle Eastern crude shipments had recovered to about 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98 per cent of pre-war levels. However, Goldman Sachs estimated Gulf oil flows, including less visible shipments, had moved close to 2025 averages.
Risk persists in fragile oil exports
The return of crude export volumes above the pre-war benchmark should therefore not be interpreted as evidence that the maritime crisis has ended.
The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) said in August that at least 70 attacks on international shipping had been verified since the conflict began, with 19 seafarers killed. It said up to 400 ships carrying about 6,000 seafarers have been unable to leave the Arabian Gulf safely since the start of the conflict.
The IMO earlier warned that no reliable security guarantee existed for commercial vessels attempting to pass through Hormuz and said safe passage could not be considered under the prevailing conditions.
Pakistan’s Joint Maritime Information Coordination Centre has also continued advising mariners to exercise caution while transiting the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz and Arabian Gulf because of the ongoing military conflict.
