NEW DELHI: India faces growing climate and economic risks as Himalayan glaciers lose mass 65% faster than they did a decade ago, increasing the threat of glacial floods, unstable mountain slopes and future water shortages, according to new research.
A report by global consultancy Systemiq, produced with the Integrated Mountain Initiative and with technical contributions from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and the GB Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, warns that the Himalayan ecosystem underpinning India’s economy and the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people is approaching a critical threshold.
The report also highlights a major monitoring gap, saying only about 21 of an estimated 40,000 glaciers across the Himalaya-Karakoram region are being monitored in detail and on a sustained basis.
As glaciers retreat, they can leave behind expanding lakes held back by unstable deposits of rock and ice. Rising temperatures are also destabilising permafrost – permanently frozen ground that can thaw as temperatures rise – as well as high mountain slopes, increasing the risk of cascading disasters. India has already experienced the devastating consequences of such hazards.
In 2023, a glacial lake outburst flood in Sikkim killed at least 70 people and caused extensive damage to roads, bridges and hydropower projects. A similar disaster in Uttarakhand in 2021 killed more than 200 people after a massive flood swept through the Rishiganga and Dhauliganga valleys.
56 glacial lakes classified as “very high risk”
The scale of the threat is reflected in government assessments. India told parliament in July that 56 glacial lakes had been classified as “very high risk” following a 2025 scientific assessment of 189 high-risk lakes in the Indian Himalayan region. The Central Water Commission is monitoring 2,485 glacial lakes larger than 10 hectares across India’s Himalayan river basins, the government said.
The economic stakes are particularly high because the Himalayas form a crucial natural water system for South Asia. The region’s rivers support agriculture, hydropower and other economic activities relied upon by hundreds of millions of people.
The Systemiq report estimates that Himalayan water underpins around 20 per cent of India’s gross domestic product, supporting sectors including wheat, rice, tea, hydropower and pilgrimage-related economies. However, it says mountain states capture only about 5 per cent of the value generated from these resources.
“The Himalayas are the Third Pole,” economist Lord Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, said, noting that unlike the Arctic and Antarctic, hundreds of millions of people live below this region. The report warns that the ecological system underpinning the Himalayan economy is approaching a tipping point.
The threat is also linked to changes in water availability. ICIMOD expects most Hindu Kush Himalayan river basins to reach “peak water” around the middle of this century – the point at which glacier runoff reaches its maximum before declining as glaciers continue to lose mass.
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Researchers say some of the drivers of glacier loss can be tackled locally. Around one-third of Himalayan glacier melt is estimated to be driven by black carbon, much of it originating from brick kilns in the plains.
Black carbon, or soot, deposited on snow and ice absorbs sunlight and accelerates melting. Unlike global greenhouse-gas emissions, the report says, black-carbon pollution can be reduced through measures taken by India and neighbouring countries.
Millions of lives, livelihoods hanging in the balance
“The Himalayas are approaching a tipping point, with millions of lives and livelihoods hanging in the balance,” said Arushi Chopra, Systemiq’s senior director and lead author of the report.
The research proposes 10 priority measures, including cutting black-carbon emissions, expanding glacier monitoring, strengthening disaster early-warning systems and making tourism more sustainable.
The Indian Himalayan region receives roughly 400 million tourist visits a year, according to the report. Researchers argue that tourism policy should move away from simply maximising visitor numbers towards generating greater economic value that is retained and reinvested in mountain communities.
Pema Gyamtsho, director general of ICIMOD, said the risks were becoming increasingly complex as glaciers retreat, permafrost thaws and high-mountain slopes become less stable.
He stressed that the resulting hazards do not respect national borders, making cross-border monitoring, information sharing, early-warning systems and joint investment in resilience increasingly important.
The report argues that protecting the Himalayas is therefore not only an environmental priority but also an economic and development imperative for India and the wider region.
