Key Points
- Al-Qaeda remains in Afghanistan but has limited capacity to attack the United States or Israel
- Semple says some al-Qaeda members operate within other terrorist groups
- Former Pakistani envoy Asif Durrani says TTP and BLA remain major security threats to Pakistan
ISLAMABAD: The Taliban now represents a greater security threat than Al-Qaeda because it controls territory and operates an extensive network of religious schools, according to a former European Union diplomat.
“Al-Qaeda remains present in Afghanistan but has been substantially weakened and lacks the capacity to inflict serious harm on the United States or Israel,” former EU envoy to Afghanistan Michael Semple has said while speaking to an Afghan media outlet.
He believes that al-Qaeda currently has limited operational capability despite the continued presence of its members in Afghanistan.
“At present, al-Qaeda does not have much ability to cause harm to the United States or Israel,” he said.
Semple was also asked about a recently circulated video showing a man identified as Hamza bin Laden, the son of former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, threatening the United States.
He described the message as appearing largely propagandistic and questioned whether the footage was authentic, suggesting it should not be treated as evidence of a renewed al-Qaeda operational capability.
Al-Qaeda members in terrorist groups
The former diplomat said a small number of al-Qaeda members were present within groups including Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Islam and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, a banned organisation routed out of Pakistan.
They are taking refuge in Afghanistan and enjoy sympathies and support from the India-Afghan Taliban nexus.
He said the presence of these individuals did not by itself constitute a major threat from al-Qaeda.
The more significant concern, Semple argued, was the Taliban’s ability to influence large numbers of Afghans through its control of the country and its religious education system.
He said Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada’s administration had overseen the establishment of thousands of religious schools, where hundreds of thousands of young Afghans were being educated.
According to Semple, students in these institutions were being exposed to an ideology that portrays the United States and Pakistan as enemies.
He said the Taliban’s investment in religious education, combined with its promotion of an extremist ideology, meant that the group could pose a longer-term security threat than the weakened al-Qaeda network.
The assessment coincides with international concern that continues over the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan five years after the Taliban returned to power.
A recent New York Times report, citing United Nations experts and security officials, said an estimated 15,000 to 20,000 militants belonging to about 20 groups remain scattered across Afghanistan.
It said al-Qaeda itself has only a few dozen members in the country, while thousands of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters operate from Afghan territory.
Semple also alleged that many terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan function under the supervision of Taliban intelligence and cannot act freely without permission from the authorities.
His comments echo concerns raised by former Pakistani special representative for Afghanistan Asif Durrani, who has said terrorist groups operating from Afghan territory remain a major security challenge for Pakistan.
Pakistan has repeatedly complained that the Taliban authorities are allowing Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters to operate from Afghanistan.
The Taliban’s relationship with terrorist groups remains a central issue in international assessments of Afghanistan’s security environment.
The United Nations and several governments have continued to monitor the situation closely.
Semple’s argument is therefore less about the Taliban having greater global terrorist capabilities than al-Qaeda and more about the potential impact of a state-controlling movement that can shape education, institutions and society across an entire country.
That combination of territorial control, ideological influence and links with armed groups, he argues, could make the Taliban a more consequential security challenge in the years ahead.
