ISLAMABAD: Global oil prices have surged nearly 30 per cent since the United States resumed military strikes against Iran earlier this month, with escalating tensions in the Middle East fueling fears of supply disruptions and pushing crude benchmarks to their fourth consecutive weekly gain.
Brent crude traded at around $101 a barrel on Friday, up from approximately $78 on July 7 when the latest phase of the US-Iran conflict began. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to about $91 a barrel from nearly $74 over the same period, according to market data compiled by Reuters and Trading Economics.
The latest rally leaves Brent up roughly 14.6 per cent for the week and WTI ahead by about 11.8 per cent, marking one of the strongest weekly performances for both global benchmarks since the energy shocks triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Reuters reported.
Oil markets have been driven higher by growing concerns over the security of key maritime trade routes. The Associated Press reported that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined amid the conflict.
The Iran-backed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea have raised the prospect of broader disruptions to global energy supplies.
Additional support for prices has come from production concerns outside the Middle East. Reuters reported that Kazakhstan has curtailed output following disruptions affecting its principal Black Sea export route, which accounts for roughly two per cent of global oil supplies.
The surge has significantly exceeded official forecasts. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) had projected Brent crude would average around $70 per barrel by the end of 2026.
At current levels, prices are trading more than $30 above that estimate, reflecting the substantial geopolitical risk premium now embedded in energy markets.
Analysts cited by Reuters and OilPrice.com said Brent could climb toward $120 a barrel if hostilities between Washington and Tehran intensify further or if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea faces prolonged disruptions.
