WASHINGTON: This week’s crucial gathering of the World Trade Organization, an organization that Donald Trump has previously criticized, was clouded by his possible reelection to the US presidency.
The event, which takes place in Abu Dhabi, presents an opportunity to reform the thirty-year-old institution’s dispute settlement process for international trade disputes.
However, despite the participation of ministers from around the world, few are optimistic about the prospects of a successful outcome, given the uncertain geopolitical landscape and escalating tensions between China and the United States.
“There is considerable apprehension about a potential Trump victory and its implications. Will he withdraw the United States from the WTO?” remarked a diplomat, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the issue. “Optimism is in short supply these days, but we remain hopeful.”
During Trump’s tenure, he impeded the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism, obstructed leadership transitions, and threatened to withdraw the US from the organization, all while engaging in a trade conflict with China.
It wasn’t until his successor, Joe Biden, assumed office in 2021 that the deadlock was resolved, enabling Nigerian Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to assume leadership of the 164-member body.
While expectations for significant institutional reforms at the conference are low, Okonjo-Iweala hopes to emphasize the WTO’s importance as an international rules-based framework.
“If Trump wins, we will have to weather the storm for another four years and mitigate the damage from the potential fallout,” noted a trade delegate, also speaking anonymously.
Analysts suggest that the WTO may struggle to defend itself if the US takes a more unilateral approach under a Trump presidency.
“The US is fixated on what it perceives as unfair competition from China, and since WTO rules offer no resolution, they have opted to act outside of these rules,” explained Cedric Dupont from the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva. “This puts the WTO in a precarious position, and inevitably, everyone will bear the consequences, including Americans.”
Sebastien Jean, associate director at the French Institute of International Relations, highlighted the political sensitivities surrounding US engagement with the WTO, which may limit progress on contentious issues.
While the Biden administration may not prioritize WTO matters, smaller common objectives, such as addressing overfishing subsidies or food security concerns, could salvage the conference from failure.
In addition to US elections and Washington’s stance, other hurdles to agreement include entrenched positions from countries like India, South Africa, and China.
Despite the challenges, many voices within the WTO affirm the continued commitment of the United States to the organization.
“At a technical level, the US has been actively involved in WTO activities,” observed Peter Ungphakorn, a former senior information officer in the WTO Secretariat. “The US has contributed constructively to various negotiations and proposed measures to enhance the WTO’s functioning.”
