Key points
- Bagram still a strategic prize with dual runways, hardened shelters
- Taliban control the base, using it for training and symbolic shows
- Pakistan links US access to trade and investment incentives
- Lily pad model cheaper, discreet, but risky to enforce
When President Donald Trump publicly demanded the return of Bagram Air Base earlier this month — warning of “bad things” if the Taliban refused — he reignited a debate that is as much more about economics and diplomacy than about military strategy.
For Washington, the question is whether a full hub is feasible, or if a smaller, more discreet lily pad base would suffice. Would a lily pad do for Trump? The answer hinges on whether Pakistan will once again play the decisive broker — as it did during America’s 2021 withdrawal — by opening channels to the Taliban and offering US access in return for trade and investment concessions.
Bagram under Taliban rule
Bagram, once the nerve centre of America’s longest war, remains a strategic prize with its dual runways, vast logistics areas, and fortified shelters. BBC Monitoring reported that since the US pullout, the Taliban have used the airfield for training exercises and symbolic parades rather than sustained flight operations. Eyewitness accounts confirm limited use, but not the kind of infrastructure-heavy occupation that once made it the Pentagon’s regional hub.
Pakistan as broker and beneficiary
Islamabad’s leverage stems not only from the geography but also from its economic bargaining power. Pakistan facilitated evacuation flights and land corridors during the 2021 withdrawal, underscoring its indispensability. Now, its ministers openly link US investment opportunities to strategic cooperation. According to Reuters, Pakistan’s commerce ministry is offering concessions in mining and energy projects, particularly in Balochistan, as part of tariff negotiations — a framework that could quietly extend to discussions over US transit access to Afghan territory.
Frozen reserves and political trade-offs
On the American side, the frozen $7 billion in Afghan central-bank reserves remains the sharpest tool of leverage. Recent US court rulings and Treasury statements, cited by Associated Press and Reuters, confirm that these assets are legally difficult to repurpose but remain central to bargaining debates. If Washington were to unlock a portion for humanitarian use, Taliban leaders might accept a limited US presence under technical cooperation pretexts. Such a move, diplomats told The Washington Post, would almost certainly require Pakistan’s mediation to avoid a political backlash in Kabul.
Unlike a full hub, a lily pad base — officially termed a Cooperative Security Location — offers the Pentagon a lighter footprint: cheaper, politically easier to sell domestically, and logistically less provocative. Analysts cited by The Washington Post argue it could provide Washington with a toehold in counterterrorism monitoring. But critics caution that without enforceable guarantees, such an arrangement risks being purely symbolic. Verification, sovereignty disputes, and the reliability of the Taliban all complicate the lily pad model.
Pakistan’s gains and risks
For Pakistan, enabling a US return could unlock investment, tariff relief, and new strategic relevance. Yet it also carries risks: domestic political opposition, sovereignty concerns, and possible retaliation from militant groups opposed to any renewed American presence. Reuters recently noted Islamabad’s bid to court foreign investors while its army pledged to safeguard projects, underscoring both the lure and the hazard of being Washington’s intermediary.
Transaction or symbolism?
From the Doha talks to the 2021 evacuation, Pakistan has been at the centre of America’s Afghan strategy. The latest debate over Bagram signals that Islamabad may again hold the key — this time not for withdrawal, but for a potential re-entry. Whether the outcome is a discreet lily pad or nothing at all, the question remains the same: can Washington turn symbolic pressure into a sustainable arrangement, or will the politics of Kabul and Islamabad make even a small footprint untenable? For now, the only certainty is that Pakistan’s role is indispensable in deciding whether a lily pad will do for Trump.
