KEY POINTS
- The Indus River System Authority warned of a 21 percent water shortfall for early Kharif season due to reduced flows from India.
- Both Pakistan and India are grappling with heatwaves, toxic smog, and water stress linked to climate change.
- Pakistan ranks fifth and India sixth in global climate vulnerability due to increasing heat-related risks.
- Pakistan’s agriculture faces threats of 30–40 per cent crop yield losses.
- Experts warn drought and reduced river flow are already impacting irrigation, groundwater recharge, and food security.
SHAKARGARH, Pakistan: In a small village of Narowal, just 20 kilometres away from the Pakistan-India border, 47-year-old Yaqoob spends his day harvesting wheat alongside villagers.
When Yaqoob heard about the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, he grew anxious—not for himself, but for the many other farmers in Punjab, Pakistan’s agricultural heartland.
“This is not the first time we’ve heard about the water issue—we grew up listening to the same stories: India stopping or releasing water. During monsoon, we’ve seen water released by India flood [Pakistani] farmers’ fields.’’
The temperature is rising high, he says, “and a shortage of rainfall causes more harm to the crops. In the summers, the hotter it gets, the greater the need for water.”
Water is a major concern for farmers already grappling with climate change, unpredictable weather patterns, droughts, and debt. “If India stops the water,” Yaqoob says, “farmers who depend on it will suffer even more.”
The Indus Waters Treaty is the most dangerous treaty currently. It is a treaty that deprives rivers of their natural flow. The entire ecosystem depends on the river.” – Abuzar Madhu, an environmental activist.
Pakistan and India are on the frontline of the climate crisis—from air pollution and winter smog to heatwaves and water scarcity. The impacts on agriculture and other sectors are intensifying rapidly in both countries.
Rising temperatures, shrinking rivers
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) warned in a May press release of a 21 per cent water shortage for Pakistan’s early Kharif season—May to June— and a seven per cent shortage during late Kharif season (June to September).
This shortfall is attributed to reduced water flow from India in the River Chenab, which is vital for irrigating crops such as rice, maize and cotton.
According to ClimaMeter, from May 26 to May 29, 2024, large parts of northern India and southern Pakistan experienced a severe heatwave, with a provincial record temperature of 49.1°C.
Similarly, this year, the Punjab Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has issued a warning that temperatures could see an unusual spike, potentially intensifying the heatwave across major cities in Punjab.
Likewise, a data analyst cited by Agence France-Presse (AFP), tens of millions of Pakistanis spent at least four months breathing toxic air pollution levels up to 20 times above safe levels during the worst smog winter season in several years.
However, both countries have the potential to find solutions to tackle climate challenges and benefit the entire region.
Nevertheless, the tense relations between Pakistan and India make it difficult to come together and engage in dialogue.
Deadly heatwaves ahead
According to the Global Climate Risk Index, 2023, Pakistan ranks as the world’s fifth most vulnerable country to climate change due to heat-related risks, while India is ranked sixth most affected.
A study conducted by The Washington Post and the CarbonPlan also found that more than 190 million people in Pakistan will be exposed to dangerous levels of extreme heat for at least one month each summer by 2030—the second highest number of any country worldwide.
Additionally, a recent study published by ClimaMeter reported that metrological conditions leading to the April 2025 heatwave in India and Pakistan are up to 4 °C warmer compared to the second half of the 20th century.
Farmers cannot proceed with their planned cropping patterns and may need to shift to other crops. Similarly, the demand for water also rises during extreme weather events like heatwaves.” – Dr. Ahmed Mahmood, climate change expert.
Efforts by both countries to address the challenges posed by climate change have so far been unsuccessful.
Experts and policy analysts argue that increased cooperation could help mitigate the impacts of the climate crisis and related issues.
Rivers divided by politics
Abuzar Madhu, a Lahore-based environmental rights activist and founder of Ravi Bachao Tehreek—a movement raising awareness about the river issues and the environmental injustices caused by both India and Pakistan—is actively fighting for the future of the River Ravi.
“The Indus Waters Treaty is the most dangerous treaty currently. It is a treaty that deprives rivers of their natural flow. The entire ecosystem depends on the river.’’
Abuzar explains that the treaty divides, limits, and restricts the water flow, causing environmental harm by preventing the river from following its natural course.
“We really need to talk about this treaty now, and we are protesting everywhere,” he adds.
Their demands include:
- Revision of the treaty from an environmental perspective, as it neglects ecological considerations.
- Protection of the Ravi River.
- Stopping the sewage discharge into the river.
- Halting development projects harming the river.
Last year, protests also took place in East Punjab (India) regarding water issues. These protests demanded the restoration of dying rivers through amendments to the Indus Waters Treaty.
Abuzar believes this kind of cooperation is a way forward for both countries to tackle climate change jointly.
The Indus Water Treaty—signed on 19th September 1960 by Pakistan and India with the collaboration of the World Bank—clearly outlines the equitable sharing of river waters.
For example, India was granted rights to the eastern rivers—Sutlej, Beas and Ravi—while Pakistan was allocated three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. The treaty contains no provision allowing either country to unilaterally suspend or terminate the agreement.
Agriculture under threat
The suspension is expected to severely affect agriculture in Sindh and Punjab.
Dr. Ahmed Mahmood—Assistant Professor in the Climate Change and Sustainable Development Program at Multan University of Science and Technology, explains, “Pakistan’s agriculture relies heavily on freshwater—more than 90 per cent of which is used for farming.”
Likewise, he adds, our irrigation system is the backbone of agriculture, contributing around 20 per cent to Gross Domestic Product. Approximately 14 million hectares across Punjab and Sindh are directly irrigated through canal water.
If things didn’t work in the past, maybe this time they will—climate change might just be the issue that finally brings India and Pakistan to the table.” – Michael Kugelman, foreign policy expert.
Considering this, all major crops—rice, cotton, maize, sugarcane, and wheat—are at risk. Dr. Mahmood warns that if Pakistan has to abruptly switch to alternative irrigation sources, which many regions cannot afford, it could open the floodgates to crop failures and food insecurity as the crop yields could drop by 30-40 per cent.
He tells We News English that the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty leads to further uncertainties, especially as many parts of Pakistan are currently facing a drought, with no rain for the last 200 days.
“Farmers cannot proceed with their planned cropping patterns and may need to shift to other crops. Similarly, the demand for water also rises during extreme weather events heatwaves,” he says, adding that a lack of water in these times would cause serious socioeconomic and agricultural problems for many farming communities.
“River flow also plays a crucial role in groundwater recharge. This affects riverine areas that, during dry periods, serve as important land for local production. If rivers stop flowing—as seems with some eastern rivers—this land becomes barren,’’ he adds.
Likewise, Abuzar strongly believes that rivers have inherent rights and should be free from politics, borders and boundaries.
Diverting rivers is not a solution. “You cannot destroy rivers, water and climate just to serve your own political interests.
Strengthening the treaty
Dr. Ahmed Mahmood emphasises that Pakistan, being one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world, cannot afford further degradation of its natural resources.
“The India-Pakistan region must understand the importance of natural resources and allow them to thrive regardless of the political tensions,” he says.
He adds that the Indus Basin Treaty, which has survived multiple conflicts in the past, must now be strengthened. If the need arises, it should be negotiated, keeping in mind the realities of climate change and the shifting of water flows.
“The World Bank has made it clear that the Indus Waters Treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended or altered—a red line that both countries must respect. Therefore, we must raise our voice on every diplomatic front against this weaponisation of water resources,” Dr. Mahmood argues.
Climate as common ground
Michael Kugelman, a Washington DC-based foreign policy expert and South Asia specialist at the Wilson Centre, sees climate cooperation as a potential opening for dialogue between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
A useful start towards a breakthrough in India-Pakistan relations could be for both countries to begin sharing data—on weather patterns, meteorological trends, and river-related flows.
Talking to WE News English, he said, “The Indus Waters Treaty also includes provisions for both sides to share river data, and this will become increasingly vital as climate-induced water stress intensifies in both countries.
Kugelman believes that climate change presents a genuine opportunity for collaboration. There is so much at stake for both countries. “This is a clear and present threat.”
However, Kugelman also acknowledges that past efforts at cooperation, even in the face of shared crises, have not yielded results. Still, he remains cautiously optimistic that climate cooperation might help India and Pakistan turn over a new leaf.
“If things didn’t work in the past, maybe this time they will—climate change might just be the issue that finally brings India and Pakistan to the table.”
