KEY POINTS
- UN sanctions on Iran are set to be reimposed Saturday through the “snapback” mechanism.
- Britain, France and Germany triggered the clause, accusing Tehran of nuclear deal breaches.
- Tehran calls the European move “legally void” and rejects US demands to hand over enriched uranium.
- Reimposed sanctions will cover missiles, arms, nuclear equipment and banking restrictions.
- Experts say economic impact may be limited, but risk of US-Iran escalation is high.
VIENNA, Austria: Ten years after wide-ranging UN sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme were lifted under a landmark deal with world powers, the economic measures are likely to be reimposed Saturday evening.
The “snapback” of UN sanctions comes after the “E3” European group — comprising Britain, France and Germany — activated the unique mechanism in the 2015 nuclear deal, alleging Tehran was not meeting its obligations.
Western powers and Israel have long accused Tehran of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, a claim Iran strongly denies and insists that its nuclear programme is solely for civilian purposes.
How does the ‘snapback’ mechanism work?
In 2015, the United States, the E3 trio, China and Russia signed a historic nuclear accord with Iran, which was enshrined by the UN Security Council in resolution 2231.
The deal, known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), saw the UN lift international sanctions against Iran in exchange for restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Resolution 2231, which expires on October 18, includes a clause that allows any party to the deal to trigger a “snapback” of all sanctions on Iran in the event of flagrant non-compliance with the JCPOA.
Any state “participating” in the agreement can lodge a complaint with the Security Council if they deem another participant has significantly failed to respect the accord.
That notification starts a 30-day process, at the end of which UN sanctions are automatically reimposed, unless the Council takes action to extend the lifting of sanctions.
Why did European powers trigger it?
On August 28, the E3 triggered the snapback mechanism after alleging Iran of having breached several JCPOA commitments, including building up a uranium stockpile to more than 40 times the deal’s limit.
Earlier this month, the UN nuclear watchdog reported that Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60 percent had risen to an estimated 440.9 kilogrammes as of June 13, an increase of 32.3 kilogrammes since May 17.
The hard-won 2015 deal has been left in tatters ever since the US unilaterally withdrew from it in 2018, during Donald Trump’s first presidency, and reimposed sanctions on Iran.
Following the US withdrawal, Tehran gradually broke away from its commitments under the agreement and began stepping up its nuclear activities.
The situation has deteriorated further in the wake of the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June, which also saw the US bomb Iranian nuclear facilities.
The war also derailed Tehran’s nuclear negotiations with the US that began in April and prompted Iran to suspend cooperation with the IAEA.
After reaching a new cooperation deal with the IAEA earlier this month, Iran on Friday said that inspectors of the Vienna-based UN body had resumed their work in the country.
What does Iran say?
While European powers have for years launched repeated efforts to revive the 2015 deal through negotiations and said they “have unambiguous legal grounds” to trigger the clause, Iran does not share their view.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Friday said the European nations’ pursuit of snapback is “legally void, (and) politically reckless,” insisting the country had put forward several proposals to ease the standoff.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said Friday Tehran would not leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in retaliation to sanctions being reimposed.
On Saturday, Pezeshkian slammed as “unacceptable” what he described as US demands that Tehran hand over its enriched uranium.
Pezeshkian told reporters in New York that Washington had asked Tehran to relinquish all of its enriched uranium in exchange for a three-month reprieve from sanctions.
The United States “wants us to hand over all our enriched uranium to them, and in return they would give us three months” exemption from sanctions, Pezeshkian told reporters in New York before leaving for Tehran.
“This is by no means acceptable,” he said.
What impact would it have?
In concrete terms, global embargoes on ballistic missile technology, arms, nuclear equipment and banking restrictions that were lifted 10 years ago would be reinstated.
Ali Vaez, the International Crisis Group’s Iran project director, told AFP that snapback “will add to the burden of Iran’s economy, which already is in a difficult position”.
But “their impact will depend on how much of the sweeping measures they provide on paper is reflected in enforcement”, especially since China and Russia might “try to stymie their execution”, he said.
Arms Control Association expert Kelsey Davenport said that “the UN measures will have little economic impact, given the breadth of US and EU sanctions already in place against Iran”.
But she warned that reinstating measures “without a negotiating process in place risks Iran and the United States getting caught in an escalatory tit-for-tat”.
Trump’s ‘Maximum pressure’
The United States already has unilateral sanctions on Iran and has tried to force all other countries to stop buying Iranian oil, although companies from China have defied the pressure.
Trump imposed a “maximum pressure” campaign during his first term when he withdrew from a landmark 2015 nuclear agreement negotiated under former president Barack Obama, which had offered sanctions relief in return for drastic curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme.
The International Crisis Group, which studies conflict resolution, said in a report that Iran seemed dismissive of the snapback as it had already learned to cope with the US sanctions.
But it noted that the snapback was not easy to reverse as it would require consensus at the Security Council.
“It is also likely to compound the malaise around an economy already struggling with high inflation, currency woes and deepening infrastructure problems,” the report said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a defiant UN address Friday urged no delay in the snapback and hinted that Israel was willing to again strike Iran’s nuclear programme.
Pezeshkian said that Iran would not retaliate against the sanctions by leaving the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, warning that unnamed powers were seeking a “superficial pretext to set the region ablaze.”
