WASHINGTON: The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised upward its average oil price projections for this year and next, citing key developments reshaping global oil market fundamentals.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released this week, the EIA lifted its 2025 and 2026 average Brent Crude price forecast to $68.76 per barrel, up from $68.64, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was adjusted to $65.15 per barrel, compared with $65 previously.
For 2026, Brent is now expected to average $54.92 per barrel and WTI $51.26, higher than the agency’s earlier projections of $52.16 and $48.50, respectively.
China’s Stockpiling and Russia Sanctions Drive Upward Revision
According to the Anadolu news agency, the upward revision reflects China’s accelerated purchases to expand its strategic oil reserves and the anticipated impact of new sanctions on Russia, which could tighten supply.
According to the EIA, China added roughly 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) to its strategic reserves between January and September 2025. Stockpiling is expected to continue into 2026, although at a slower pace.
New sanctions on Russia are projected to reduce its crude output by around 100,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2026. The agency warns that stronger-than-expected sanction effects could trigger a sharper decline, putting upward pressure on prices.
Global Supply and Demand Set to Rise Through 2026
US crude output is forecast to average 13.59 million bpd in 2025, compared with 13.53 million bpd in the previous outlook.
For 2026, production is projected at 13.58 million bpd, slightly higher than the earlier estimate of 13.51 million bpd.
Global oil supply is forecast to average 105.98 million bpd in 2025, with demand expected to reach 104.14 million bpd.
In 2026, global supply is projected to rise to 107.37 million bpd, while demand is expected to reach 105.20 million bpd, according to the EIA.
