DUBAI: As the UN climate talks in Dubai enter a pivotal stage, negotiators are intensifying efforts to strike a historic deal focused on the phased elimination of fossil fuels.
With ministers now actively participating in the summit’s concluding stretch, a revised draft has been released, offering five distinct options to address the most challenging element of the emerging agreement – reducing reliance on fossil fuels to mitigate the escalating impact of climate change.
The third version of the draft, representing the diverse viewpoints of participating countries, includes options ranging from avoiding any explicit mention of fossil fuels to phasing out “unabated” fossil fuels – those with emissions that cannot be captured.
One proposal aims to peak consumption of unabated fossil fuels within this decade, aspiring to transition the world’s energy sector to be “predominantly free of fossil fuels well ahead of 2050.” Another option emphasizes a shift towards renewable energy to substantially reduce global dependence on non-renewable and high-emission energy sources.
The inclusion of language promoting the ramping up of renewable energy aligns with a recent agreement between the United States and China, the two leading greenhouse gas emitters globally. COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber has set a target to conclude the talks as scheduled, urging all participating nations – nearly 200 in total – to reach a consensus.
Romain Ioualalen, Global Policy Manager of the advocacy group Oil Change International, acknowledges that the latest draft “shows we have never been closer to an agreement on a fossil fuel phaseout.” However, concerns linger about potential loopholes, particularly within the fossil fuel industry.
OPEC Chief Haitham Al Ghais has heightened concerns by urging cartel members and allies to “proactively reject” any COP28 deal targeting fossil fuels instead of emissions. The letter underscores worries that undue pressure against fossil fuels may have irreversible consequences.
COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber, who also heads the UAE national oil firm ADNOC, has sought to allay suspicions by expressing that a phase-down of fossil fuels is “inevitable.” However, skepticism persists, given his industry ties.
Wopke Hoekstra, the European Union’s climate commissioner, identifies the fossil fuel question as the most challenging aspect of COP28. Doubts arise about the effectiveness of technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) promoted by energy producers, including the US, as a solution. Hoekstra emphasizes that while CCS is part of the solution, relying solely on this technology is insufficient to address emissions adequately.
Scientists stress the urgency of achieving a 43% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The ongoing negotiations carry significant weight, and the inclusion of the term “unabated” in a potential agreement may offer a compromise to facilitate broader consensus.
As discussions continue, the outcome of COP28 holds substantial implications for the credibility of the entire COP process. With a record presence of over 2,400 fossil fuel lobbyists at the talks, the pressure to secure a comprehensive agreement on fossil fuel reduction is paramount. Vanessa Nakate, a UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador, asserts that failure to agree on a fossil fuel phase-out would not only impact COP28 but cast doubt on the credibility of the entire COP process.
In this critical phase of the UN climate talks, the global community awaits a resolution that could shape the future trajectory of climate action and define the commitment of nations to addressing the urgent challenges posed by fossil fuel consumption.
