Sudan has been in a grip of burgeoning turmoil since last month. The intense clashes between the Sudanese armed forces and the country’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) killed more than 528 people and around 5000 wounded, sent thousands fleeing for safety and brought the country to a humanitarian ‘breaking point’.
General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the country’s ruler, enjoys the support of the military. His regime has been challenged by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, head of the RSF. The RSF also called Janjaweed is the collection of paramilitary forces, which was founded to crush a rebellion in Darfur by President Omer al-Bashir. In 2013, Janjaweed was transformed into a semi-organised paramilitary force.
Although the rival camps have agreed to extend the cease-fire, in reality, the battle between them is yet to cease. Both sides accuse each other of violations of the cease-fire. Notably, nonstop shelling in the cities including hospitals and looting of humanitarian facilities has forced the foreign aid groups to suspend most of their humanitarian operations. Hence, the warring generals declined to heed the calls by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development, the African Union and the international community to cease fire.
Since the ouster of former President Omar al-Bashir in 2019, Sudanese have been experiencing immense political instability due to the power struggle between Gen. Burhan and his deputy Gen. Hemedti. The power struggle between the armed forces and paramilitary forces is not a new development in Sudan’s domestic politics. President Bashir implicitly encouraged the power struggle between the military and paramilitary forces to prolong his regime. Ironically, this power struggle did not prevent the demise of his three decades of autocratic regime. However, it endured the ruinous political and economic instability in the country.
From the beginning, General Burhan has been sceptical about the ambitions and influence of his deputy. Therefore, to cut back Hemedti’s influence in Sudanese politics, Burhan introduced reforms in the paramilitary forces. He announced the integration of RSF into the regular armed forces. Hemedti is opposed to the reforms because transformation in RSF would compromise his powerbase in domestic politics. Hence, the process of integration of the RSF into the regular armed forces was an important bone of contention between the warring factions.
The ongoing intra-state conflict in Sudan has the potential to drag in the major Gulf powers and the United States, China, and Russia. The neighbouring states and great powers endeavour to increase their influence on Khartoum, due to the country’s geopolitical and geoeconomic significance. Sudan’s former prime minister Abdullah Hamadouk opined that “the regional influences are very obvious in this conflict, each one of them is getting supported by some countries around us, it’s not a Sudanese thing, it seems like a proxy war”. He sounds spot-on because, Egypt has fostered close ties to the Sudanese Armed Forces, while the United Arab Emirates and Libyan National Army leader Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar maintain connections with the RSF.
Besides the regional powers, the great powers are battling for influence in Sudan due to the country’s strategic location—bordering the Red Sea, the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa. Like regional powers, they are interested in Sudanese vast mineral assets such as chromite, magnesium, gold, uranium, etc. Presently, Sudan serves as the tenth-largest gold producer in the world. For instance, it produced over 18 tons of gold in 2022.
China also views Sudan as an import link in its Belt and Road Initiative’s African projects. Currently, more than 130 Chinese companies are operating in Sudan. In 2022, China and Sudan launched an express shipping service. However, Beijing has refrained from taking sides in the ongoing fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and RSF. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said, “We call on the two sides to stop fighting as soon as possible and prevent further escalation. We hope parties in Sudan will increase dialogue and jointly move forward the political transition process.”
Moscow and Khartoum inked an agreement to set up a Russian Naval base on the Red Sea in 2019. Therefore, Russians strongly support Sudan’s territorial integrity and oppose the creation of an independent Darfurian state.
Since the removal of former President Bashir and the signing of a historic military-civilian power-sharing agreement, the United States and Sudan relationship has been on a positive trajectory. In 2020, the Trump administration lifted Sudan’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. Sudan established diplomatic ties with Israel to consolidate its relations with the United States. Indeed, the Americans have been improving their relations with the Sudanese the checkmate Russians and Chinese in the region.
To conclude, the turmoil in Sudan would be having destabilizing repercussions for the entire region. The Sudanese refugees would cause economic strain in the neighbouring countries. Besides, it increases the threat of transnational terrorist syndicates, including Daesh, al-Qaeda, regrouping, which deeply affects security and stability inside the country and in the neighbourhood.
