ISLAMABAD: Turkey is gearing up for a crucial presidential runoff vote on Sunday, pitting incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan against joint opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The outcome of the election will determine whether the country will witness continuity under Erdogan’s rule or embrace a change in leadership.
As the voting day approaches, both candidates have intensified their campaigns, addressing critical issues such as the economy, nationalist sentiments, and the repatriation of Syrian refugees.
Background of Turkish Presidential Runoff
In the initial round of presidential voting on May 14, Erdogan secured 49.5 percent of the votes, falling just 0.6 percent short of an outright victory. Kilicdaroglu, the joint opposition candidate, garnered 44.88 percent, while ultranationalist politician Sinan Ogan received 5.17 percent.
Erdogan’s People’s Alliance also maintained a parliamentary majority of 323 seats out of the 600-seat parliament following the parliamentary elections held on the same day.
Election Campaign Dynamics
During the two-week-long campaign for the second round, Kilicdaroglu, a secular and pro-Western candidate, rallied his supporters around the country’s economic challenges and nationalist concerns. He aimed to attract undecided nationalist voters and framed the election as a referendum on Erdogan’s leadership. Kilicdaroglu pledged to repatriate the 3.6 million Syrian refugees residing in Turkey, emphasizing the importance of border security.
Turnout and Media Landscape
The first round of voting witnessed a high turnout of 86.2 percent, with over 55 million people casting their votes. Similar participation rates are anticipated for the runoff. State media coverage in Turkey has predominantly favored Erdogan’s campaign, as approximately 90 percent of the country’s media is under government control.
Potential Outcomes of Presidential Runoff
Soner Cagaptay, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, suggests three likely outcomes for Sunday’s runoff. A narrow victory for Erdogan may result in a fragile leadership, potentially leading to an authoritarian rule with increased crackdowns and a greater reliance on Russia and Gulf countries for economic support.
An “emboldened Erdogan” scenario, with a landslide victory, would grant him more room to validate his policies and pass controversial legislation demanded by his far-right allies. The most plausible outcome is Erdogan winning comfortably, leading to a continuation of his economic and domestic policies, albeit with a potential rebalancing of relations with Europe and the US.
Implications of a Kilicdaroglu Victory
If Kilicdaroglu emerges as the victor, it is expected to be a narrow victory. However, his lack of a parliamentary majority could pose challenges in implementing reforms. Although the parliament has limited power under Erdogan’s system, Kilicdaroglu’s presidency would face complications with parliamentary commissions and committees.
Nevertheless, the opposition coalition is likely to stay united, providing stability through the 2024 local elections. Kilicdaroglu’s win may result in a focus on economic prosperity, rule of law, and democratic freedoms, with an improvement in the investment environment and potential market rally.
The Turkish presidential runoff holds significant implications for the future of the country. The choice between continuity under Erdogan or a potential change in leadership with Kilicdaroglu will shape Turkey’s domestic and foreign policies, economy, and democratic landscape. As voters head to the polls, the outcome will have far-reaching consequences for the nation’s trajectory in the coming years.
