ISTANBUL: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emerged triumphant from a hard-fought election, defying pollsters and economic woes to position himself for another five-year term in a historic May 28 runoff.
Despite the country’s most severe economic crisis since the 1990s and a formidable challenge from his opponents, the 69-year-old leader came within a hair’s breadth of clinching victory in Sunday’s presidential ballot.
Erdogan’s right-wing party, in alliance with ultra-nationalists, also managed to retain control of parliament in a dramatic turn of events that saw the president delivering a jubilant victory speech to supporters from a balcony.
Surprisingly, Erdogan even secured victories in regions affected by a devastating earthquake in February, where public anger towards the government’s response to the disaster had been brewing.
“It’s a staggering win for Erdogan,” commented emerging markets economist Timothy Ash. “He possesses a certain charisma, particularly during such times, and he connects with Turks – the nationalist, socially conservative, and Muslim ones.”
In the face of Erdogan’s resilience, the main opposition party led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu acknowledged their inability to defeat Erdogan at one of his most vulnerable moments. Kilicdaroglu urged his supporters not to despair, vowing to stand up and face the upcoming runoff election together.
Turkey’s election officials confirm runoff
Turkey’s election officials confirmed that a second round would take place as the remaining uncounted votes would not significantly alter the outcome. Erdogan secured 49.5 percent of the vote, while Kilicdaroglu obtained 44.9 percent. Nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan garnered 5.2 percent. The election witnessed a record-high turnout of 88.9 percent.
Observers from the Council of Europe noted that the election was “marked by an unlevel playing field but still competitive.” While Erdogan’s supporters celebrated, the markets reacted negatively, with the lira hitting new lows against the dollar and stocks on the Istanbul exchange falling. Analysts warned of potential macroeconomic instability as Erdogan’s unconventional economic policies might continue.
Meanwhile, in more nationalist and conservative circles, the outcome was viewed differently. “The people won!” declared the right-wing Yeni Safak newspaper in a banner headline, while the pro-government Sabah daily hailed Erdogan’s performance as a “superb success.”
Erdogan’s supporters expressed unwavering confidence in the president’s leadership. “Erdogan is going to win. He is a real leader. The Turkish people trust him. He has a vision for Turkey,” said Hamdi Kurumahmut, a tourism sector worker in Istanbul.
Although some Kilicdaroglu supporters remained optimistic, many analysts believe that the opposition alliance faces an uphill battle in halting Erdogan’s momentum over the next two weeks. Emre Peker of the Eurasia Group consultancy placed the odds of an Erdogan victory at 80 percent, attributing the incumbent’s success to strong messaging on terrorism, security, and family values.
The outcome of Sunday’s election highlighted the challenge of gauging public opinion in a deeply polarized nation of 85 million people. “Many pre-elections public opinion poll results did not reflect Erdogan’s resourcefulness and the degree of support he still enjoys in the country,” cautioned political risk consultant Anthony Skinner.
