ANKARA: Turkey appears to be heading for a runoff presidential election as neither incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu managed to secure an outright victory on Sunday. The election is seen as a verdict on Erdogan’s 20-year rule and his increasingly authoritarian path.
With nearly 91 percent of the ballot boxes counted, both sides claimed to be ahead in polls and contested the figures, highlighting the deep polarization within the country.
Pre-election opinion polls indicated a close race, with Kilicdaroglu, who leads a six-party alliance, holding a slight lead. Two polls even suggested he could surpass the 50 percent threshold.
The outcome of the presidential vote will determine not only the leadership of Turkey, a NATO-member country with a population of 85 million, but also the country’s path regarding secularism and democracy, its handling of the severe cost of living crisis, and its management of key relationships with Russia, the Middle East, and the West.
According to the state-owned news agency Anadolu, with nearly 91 percent of the ballot boxes counted, Erdogan led with 49.86 percent, while Kilicdaroglu had 44.38 percent. The opposition alleged that the results were being published in a manner that artificially boosted Erdogan’s tally.
A senior official from the opposition alliance stated, “It seems there will be no clear winner in the first round of elections. But, our data indicates Kilicdaroglu will lead.” Another senior opposition official mentioned that Erdogan’s party was raising objections to the ballots, thus delaying the announcement of full results.
Celebrations in Turkey
Supporters of both sides celebrated in Ankara. Outside the headquarters of Erdogan’s AK Party (AKP), people held up posters of Erdogan, sang songs, and danced, expressing their anticipation of victory. At Kilicdaroglu’s CHP party headquarters, around a thousand people gathered, waving flags of Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and playing drums.
A runoff election, scheduled for May 28, will determine Turkey’s next president. This decision holds great significance in the country’s 100-year history and will have implications beyond its borders.
A defeat for Erdogan, one of President Vladimir Putin’s key allies, is likely to unsettle the Kremlin but may provide a sense of relief for the Biden administration, as well as numerous Middle Eastern and European leaders who have had strained relations with Erdogan.
As Turkey’s longest-serving leader, Erdogan has transformed Turkey into a global player, modernizing it through ambitious projects such as new bridges, hospitals, and airports and establishing a sought-after military industry.
However, his volatile economic policies, characterized by low-interest rates, have contributed to a soaring cost of living crisis and inflation, leaving him vulnerable to voters’ anger. Moreover, his government’s slow response to a devastating earthquake and allegations of state repression have further disillusioned voters.
Kilicdaroglu has promised to steer Turkey toward a new course by revitalizing democracy, adopting orthodox economic policies, empowering institutions that have lost autonomy under Erdogan’s rule, and rebuilding fragile ties with the West. A victory for the opposition could lead to the release of thousands of political prisoners and activists.
Critics expressed concerns that Erdogan will continue to govern with increasing autocracy if he secures another term. Erdogan, 69, a veteran of numerous election victories, denies being a dictator and claims to respect democracy.
The support of Sinan Ogan, a nationalist presidential candidate who received 5.3 percent of the vote, could be crucial depending on whom he decides to endorse in the runoff.
In addition to the presidential race, Turks are also voting for a new parliament. Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AKP, in alliance with the nationalist MHP and others,
