WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump has refused to rule out the possibility of a recession in 2025, acknowledging economic uncertainty as his administration implements major policy shifts, including reciprocal tariffs and government spending cuts.
In an interview with Fox News Sunday Morning Futures, Trump was asked about the likelihood of a downturn but declined to make a definitive prediction.
“I hate to predict things like that,” he said, adding, “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big – we’re bringing wealth back to America. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”
The comments come as financial markets react to concerns over Trump’s tariff policies, which have already led to volatility on Wall Street.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model has forecast a 2.4% contraction in real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025, the worst since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has raised its recession probability estimate from 15% to 20%, citing trade policy uncertainty.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, however, sought to allay fears, telling NBC’s Meet the Press: “Absolutely not” when asked if Americans should brace for a recession.
Tariff uncertainty and economic impact
Trump’s tariff policy has been a source of concern for businesses, with analysts warning of potential inflationary pressures.
In his Fox News interview, Trump insisted that businesses would have clarity after April 2, when his reciprocal tariffs are set to take effect. However, he hinted that duties on imports could increase over time.
“The tariffs could go up as time goes by,” Trump said. “This country has been ripped off from every nation in the world, every company in the world. We’ve been ripped off at levels never seen before, and what we’re going to do is get it back.”
He urged businesses to manufacture domestically, adding: “Build it here, there’s no tariff.”
Ukraine aid and minerals deal
During the interview, Trump also addressed his recent Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Describing Zelensky as a “smart and tough guy,” Trump accused him of exploiting US financial assistance during the Biden administration.
“He took money out of this country under Biden like taking candy from a baby. It was so easy,” Trump said, adding, “I just don’t think he’s grateful.”
Trump also reiterated his claim that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine had he been president at the time. When asked whether a US-Ukraine minerals deal would still proceed, Trump said, “I think so.”
Musk’s role in government
Trump defended sweeping government cost-cutting measures overseen by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk.
The programme has resulted in mass layoffs, sparking criticism from some lawmakers.
“What he’s done is unbelievable,” Trump said of Musk, calling him a “patriot” and crediting him with exposing financial waste.
However, reports suggest Musk has clashed with Secretary of State Marco Rubio over the agency’s approach. Trump dismissed speculation of tension as “fake news” on Truth Social.
While advocating for reduced federal spending, Trump ruled out cuts to defence funding. “You have China, you have Russia, you have a lot of problems out there,” he said, adding that while he would “love” to trim military spending, now was not the time.
‘Gold Card’ citizenship proposal
Trump also used the interview to promote his proposed “gold card” route to US citizenship, which would allow foreign nationals to pay $5 million for residency rights.
He argued that the initiative would benefit businesses by retaining highly educated graduates.
“You graduate number one at Wharton, or Harvard, or Stanford, and you get thrown out of the country,” he said.
“Now, they can buy a gold card and make it a part of their deal to get these top students—no different than an athlete.”
On education policy, Trump reiterated his desire to dismantle the US Department of Education, arguing that schools should be controlled at the state level.
“We have the worst Education Department and education in the world,” he claimed.
