Key points
- Israel demands a “political puppet” to control (post-Khamenei Iran): Report
- Says there has been talk in US of installing a “moderate religious leader” to run Iran if Khamenei is deposed
- Government offices that house files on suspected dissenters in Iran will be attacked: Report
- Delay in US strikes on Fordow is due to Trump wanting to diminish the shock of bombing as much as possible
ISLAMABAD: Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published a report on Substack on Thursday, where he has highlighted a split between the US and Israel apropos the future of post-Khamenei Iran.
There has been talk among the White House planning group of installing a moderate religious leader to run the country if Khamenei is deposed, while the Israelis bitterly object to the idea, the report states. Israel, on the other hand, demands a “political puppet” to control post-Khamenei Iran.
Moreover, the Trump administration is in full support of Israel’s current plan to rid Iran of any trace of a nuclear weapons programme, the report adds, “while hoping the ayatollah-led government in Tehran will be overthrown.”
The report, however, highlights what Hersh’s calls “the most important unanswered question” about the current situation that is what will be the response of the world, including that of Vladimir Putin, the Russian president who has been an ally of Iran’s leaders.
Creating an uprising
Hersh writes in the report that the Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes that the bombings will provide “the means of creating an uprising” against Iran’s current regime.
Iranian demography
The report states: Only two thirds of Iran’s population of 90 million are Persians. The largest minority groups include Azeris, many of whom have longstanding covert ties to the Central Intelligence Agency, Kurds, Arabs, and Baluchis. Jews make up a small minority group there, too. (Azerbaijan is the site of a large secret CIA base for operations in Iran.)
Moderate religious leader
Bringing back the Shah’s son, now living in exile in near Washington, has never been considered by the American and Israeli planners, I was told. But there has been talk among the White House planning group that includes Vice President JD Vance, of installing a moderate religious leader to run the country if Khamenei is deposed, it adds.
Split with the Izzies
The investigative journalist’s report states: The Israelis bitterly objected to the idea. “They don’t give a shit on the religious issue, but demand a political puppet to control,” the longtime US official said. “We are split with the Izzies on this. Result would be permanent hostility and future conflict in perpetuity, Bibi desperately trying to draw US in as their ally against all things Muslim, using the plight of the citizens as propaganda bait.”
The Bashar al-Assad model
Hersh writes: There is the hope in the American and Israeli intelligence communities, I was told, that elements of the Azeri community will join in a popular revolt against the ruling regime, should one develop during the continued Israeli bombing. There also is the thought that some members of the Revolutionary Guard would join in what I was told might be “a democratic uprising against the ayatollahs”—a longheld aspiration of the US government. The sudden and successful overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria was cited as a potential model, the report says.
Possibility of permanent failure
It is possible that the result of the massive Israeli and US bombing attack could leave Iran in a state of permanent failure, as happened after the Western intervention in Libya in 2011. That revolt resulted in the brutal murder of Muammar Gaddafi, who had kept the disparate tribes there under control. The futures of Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, all victims of repeated outside attacks, are far from settled.
Donald Trump clearly wants an international win he can market. To accomplish that, he and Netanyahu are taking America to places it has never been.
“Heavy bombing” on Iran
The investigative journalist writes, citing Israeli sources and longstanding US officials who anticipate the possibility of significant US airstrikes on Iran as early as this weekend.
Hersh states, “This is a report on what is most likely to happen in Iran … It will entail heavy American bombing.”
He suggests the operation could remain “under control” if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were to “depart,” though he acknowledged that how such a development might occur remains unclear.
Hersh notes that while much attention is being paid to US military capability and potential targets, there appears to be little practical strategy for removing a deeply influential religious leader.
Ultimate targets
Hersh in his report writes that the ultimate targets are the centrifuges buried at least 80 metres below the surface at Fordow, will, as of this writing, not be struck until the weekend. It has been agreed, as of Wednesday, that US bombers carrying bunker bombs capable of penetrating to that depth, will begin attacking the Fordow facility this weekend.
The planned weekend bombing will also have new targets: the bases of the Republican Guards. Government offices that house files on suspected dissenters in Iran will also be attacked. Iranian police stations will be struck.
Reason for the delay
The delay has come at Trump’s insistence because the president wants the shock of the bombing to be diminished as much as possible by the opening of Wall Street trading on Monday. The delay will give US military assets throughout the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean—there are more than two dozen US Air Force bases and Navy ports in the region—a chance to prepare for possible Iranian retaliation.
READ ALSO: Trump to Make Decision on Iran War ‘Within Next Two Weeks’
The report also underscores the US’s role as Israel’s primary ally, particularly amid its actions in Gaza, and referenced the Trump administration’s broader objectives of dismantling Iran’s nuclear ambitions and pushing for regime change in Tehran.
“Shouldn’t continue to exist”
Following the recent Iranian strikes that reportedly hit an Israeli hospital, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz held Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responsible, stating that the military had been instructed that in order to accomplish its objectives, “this man absolutely should not continue to exist.”
Australia shuts down embassy
Meanwhile, Australia said on Friday it had suspended operations at its embassy in Tehran, citing a deteriorating security situation amid the Iran-Israel conflict.
Australian Broadcasting Corporation cited Foreign Minister Penny Wong as saying that the government had directed the departure of all Australian officials and dependents and suspended operations at its embassy in Tehran based on advice about “the deteriorating security environment in Iran”.
New Zealand closes its embassy
On Thursday, New Zealand said it had closed its embassy in Iran, evacuating two staff members and their family to Azerbaijan by land.
“If and when opportunities arise to assist the departure of other New Zealanders in Iran and Israel, we will pursue them with urgency,” Foreign Minister Winston Peters said in a statement.
US involvement
The report by Seymour Hersh follows comments from White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who stated that President Donald Trump is expected to decide within two weeks whether the US will take a more active role in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt read out a message from Trump at a briefing, saying there had been “a lot of speculation” about whether the United States would be “directly involved.”
“Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” Trump said in the statement as read by Leavitt.
