BEIRUT: In eastern Syria, a week of intense clashes between rival US-backed militias has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the region.
This unrest, where hundreds of American troops are stationed, has exposed vulnerabilities in the coalition that has maintained stability following the defeat of the Daesh group. As tensions rise between the dominant Kurdish population and mainly Arab communities, this situation could potentially offer a chance for the radical group to reemerge.
Eastern Syria has largely remained off the global radar, particularly in the United States, where approximately 900 troops and an undisclosed number of contractors have been stationed since Daesh’s defeat in 2019. These American forces operate alongside the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of militias primarily composed of Kurdish fighters. Simultaneously, a US-supported Kurdish-led administration has governed parts of northern Syria, extending eastward from the Euphrates River, encompassing critical oil fields. Across the river’s western bank, government forces and Iranian-backed militias hold positions. This complex web of influence has caused resentment among the region’s Arab population, who play roles in both the SDF and the Kurdish-led administration but have long been dissatisfied with Kurdish control.
The recent clashes involve the Syrian Democratic Forces and an affiliated group, the Arab-led Deir Ezzor Military Council. The trigger for this violence was the August 27 arrest of the council’s commander, Ahmad Khbeil (known as Abu Khawla), by the SDF. The SDF accused Khbeil of criminal activity, corruption, and initiating contacts with the Damascus government and Iranian-backed militias. Subsequently, clashes erupted between the SDF and Khbeil’s loyalists, joined by hundreds of Arab tribesmen, resulting in the takeover of several villages outside Deir Ezzor. The conflict has led to at least 90 fatalities and dozens of injuries.
Kurdish leaders have accused Iranian-backed militias and the Syrian government of instigating the violence. However, some argue that the root cause lies in local Arab resentment of Kurdish dominance. Opposition activists have reported ongoing negotiations with tribal leaders to reach a ceasefire. Finding a solution could entail appointing a replacement for Khbeil and granting Arabs greater influence in local councils.
If the conflict persists, it could exacerbate tensions between Kurds and Arabs, potentially creating an opening for remnants of Daesh to attempt a resurgence. The US military has called for an end to the fighting, emphasizing that “distractions (from opposing IS) create instability and increase the risk of Daesh resurgence.”
Over the weekend, a meeting involving SDF figures, tribal leaders, and US officials took place. They emphasized the importance of addressing local grievances, avoiding civilian casualties, and de-escalation in Deir Ezzor. While the SDF continued its offensive, capturing two villages and encircling the main Arab tribesmen’s stronghold in Diban, it remains unclear whether the US-led coalition provided aerial support.
Daesh once controlled substantial portions of Iraq and Syria but was defeated following a lengthy, arduous campaign led by the US and its allies, including the SDF. However, fugitive cells have continued to carry out low-level attacks in the region since the group’s territorial defeat in 2019.
The escalating violence also offers an opportunity for Damascus and Iran to advance their demands for the withdrawal of US forces. Pro-government militias have characterized the violence as a Syrian uprising against American occupation.
In recent months, there have been reports of Iranian-linked drone attacks on US bases, resulting in casualties. The US responded with airstrikes on sites affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. These events highlight the tensions surrounding the presence of American forces in Syria, which is aligned with the interests of Iran, Russia, and the Syrian government.
The clashes come on the heels of reports suggesting that the US might attempt to sever the vital land corridor between Iran and the Mediterranean Sea by capturing the strategic border town of Boukamal. US officials have denied these claims, reiterating that their primary focus remains countering Daesh.
Nonetheless, Iran and its allies view any attempts to close the Iraq-Syria border as a red line. In this volatile environment, the region faces the risk of further destabilization, potentially leading to consequences that extend beyond its borders.
As the situation in eastern Syria unfolds, it is essential for all stakeholders, including the US, Russia, Iran, and regional actors, to engage in diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation and conflict resolution to prevent the re-emergence of extremist groups and the further deterioration of stability in this critical region.
