ISLAMABAD: One year into US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Pakistan is emerging as an unexpected beneficiary of a recalibration in Washington’s strategic outlook, with the newly released 2026 National Defence Strategy signalling a softer tone on China and a diminished emphasis on India that analysts say has eased long-standing pressures on Islamabad.
Pakistani officials and former diplomats say the shift, reflected in the 2026 US National Defence Strategy, marks a departure from years of framing China as America’s primary global adversary and has eased long-standing strategic pressures on Islamabad.
When Trump began his second term, concerns were widespread in Pakistan. With US forces already withdrawn from Afghanistan and the “America First” doctrine revived, many feared Pakistan would again be marginalised in Washington’s regional calculus.
Analysts anticipated closer US-India ties, increased pressure on Pakistan, and a harder American line against China — a combination that would have complicated Islamabad’s balancing act between Washington and Beijing.
A different trajectory emerges
Contrary to those expectations, Pakistan’s engagement with the Trump administration has improved over the past year, while India-US relations have shown visible strain.
The 2026 defence strategy has reinforced this trend, offering what Pakistani officials describe as “strategic breathing space” at a time of regional uncertainty.
At the heart of the new US strategy is a notable reframing of China. Unlike the 2022 defence strategy under President Joe Biden, which labelled China the “most consequential strategic competitor,” the new document avoids portraying Beijing as an existential threat.
The strategy explicitly states that Washington does not seek confrontation, domination or isolation of China. Instead, it aims for what it calls a “decent peace” — deterring Beijing through strength rather than escalation.
Relief for Pakistan’s balancing act
For Pakistan, the shift is especially significant given its close strategic partnership with China. A confrontational US-China relationship has historically placed Islamabad under pressure to choose sides.
A senior Pakistani official, speaking anonymously, said the new approach makes Pakistan’s diplomacy “less stressful,” adding that reduced US-China confrontation provides greater diplomatic flexibility.
Former diplomat Abdul Basit described Trump’s approach as tactical rather than conciliatory. “This is about buying time to counter China without pushing tensions to an irreversible point,” he said, noting that the current environment benefits Pakistan “so long as it lasts.”
India’s absence raises eyebrows
Equally striking for observers is what the 2026 strategy omits. India — a frequent fixture in previous US policy documents — is not mentioned at all in the 24-page text.
The document also excludes any reference to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a grouping involving the US, India, Japan and Australia that had been central to earlier Indo-Pacific strategies.
Pakistani officials interpret this as a recalibration of US regional priorities. One senior official said the absence of India suggests Washington no longer views New Delhi as central to its China strategy, easing regional imbalance from Pakistan’s perspective.
Analysts urge caution
Despite the apparent diplomatic gains, analysts warn against assuming permanence. Trump’s foreign policy is widely seen as transactional and personality-driven, raising doubts about the longevity of the shift beyond his term.
“This reflects Trump’s worldview rather than a permanent change in US grand strategy,” a Pakistani official cautioned, urging Islamabad to benefit from the current environment without making long-term assumptions.
Former foreign secretary Jalil Abbas Jilani noted that while China remains listed as a major competitor in the new strategy, the tone has softened considerably. The emphasis is now on maintaining balance in the Indo-Pacific rather than open confrontation.
He also observed that US concerns over Pakistan-China cooperation, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), have noticeably receded over the past year.
“This creates space for Pakistan to pursue its strategic partnership with China while rebuilding a stronger relationship with the United States,” Jilani said.
A potential diplomatic role
Jilani added that Washington increasingly views Pakistan as a possible stabilising partner — not only in managing tensions with China, but also in Iran, Afghanistan and the broader Middle East.
Historically, Pakistan-US relations have been strained by four factors: ties with China, US-India relations, Afghanistan and nuclear issues. Analysts say the current US reassessment — including a more transactional view of India — has softened some of these pressure points.
Looking ahead
While the 2026 US defence strategy aligns with Pakistan’s preference for avoiding entanglement in great-power rivalry, experts stress the need for strategic prudence.
For now, the recalibration in Washington has made Pakistan’s regional diplomacy more manageable — a window of opportunity Islamabad hopes to use carefully amid an evolving global order.
The 2026 National Defence Strategy (NDS) released by the Pentagon on Friday said that the US military will prioritise protecting the homeland and deterring China while providing “more limited” support to allies in Europe and elsewhere.
It marks a significant departure from past Pentagon policy, both in its emphasis on allies taking on increased burdens with less backing from Washington and its softer tone on traditional foes China and Russia.
The previous NDS, released under President Donald Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden, described China as Washington’s most consequential challenge and said that Russia posed an “acute threat.”
The new document, however, urges “respectful relations” with Beijing, while making no mention of US ally Taiwan, which China claims as its territory, and describing the threat from Russia as a “persistent but manageable” one affecting NATO’s eastern members.
Both the Biden and Trump strategies say homeland defence is important, but their descriptions of the threats facing the US differ significantly.
According to former diplomat- Mansoor Ali Khan- diplomatic relations between United States and Pakistan have always been very good and cordial.
However, in the background of prevailing global geopolitical situation, significance between economic and strategic relations between both the countries has further increased.
Pakistan has been able to keep enhance engagement with United States at both bilateral and regional level with special focus to India.
The US has been supporting Pakistan’s narrative in war against India. On the issue of Afghanistan, positions of both Pakistan and US align to each other.
Indian diplomatic bids failed
Ambassador Mansoor Ali Khan said over last two decades, India and US have been considering each other as strategic partners, but in 2025, all Indian diplomatic bids failed. Even Indian efforts fired back as the US has denied all kinds of favours to India.
Several former Pakistani diplomats have described Washington’s evolving strategic posture as a rare moment of diplomatic relief for Islamabad, saying it aligns with Pakistan’s long-standing preference for strategic balance rather than bloc politics.
Former foreign secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry said the softer US framing of China reduces structural pressures that have historically complicated Pakistan’s foreign policy.
“Any easing of great-power confrontation is inherently beneficial for countries like Pakistan that maintain close relations with multiple major powers,” he said. “This strategy appears to acknowledge that forcing countries into binary choices is counterproductive.”
Former ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqani noted that the absence of overt ideological confrontation in the 2026 defence strategy could help stabilise regional diplomacy, even if competition between Washington and Beijing continues.
“The shift does not mean rivalry has disappeared, but it does suggest a more pragmatic approach,” he said. “For Pakistan, this lowers the cost of maintaining its strategic partnership with China while engaging the United States on areas of mutual interest.”
Former foreign secretary Tehmina Janjua said the recalibration gives Pakistan an opportunity to revive a more confident, multi-vector foreign policy.
Optimism must be tempered with realism
Despite welcoming the shift, diplomats stressed that optimism must be tempered with realism. Former ambassador Zamir Akram warned against assuming the new tone represents a permanent shift in US grand strategy.
“American policy has always been cyclical,” he said. “Pakistan should take advantage of the current environment but avoid strategic complacency. Our interests are best served by flexibility, not dependence on any one power’s doctrine.”
Overall, former diplomats agree that the 2026 US defence strategy offers a window of opportunity rather than a guarantee of lasting change.
“The key takeaway,” one retired diplomat summarised, “is that Pakistan now has more room to manoeuvre diplomatically. How effectively it uses that space will depend on Islamabad’s own policy coherence, not just Washington’s intentions.”
