Staff Report
ISLAMABAD: The Asian Development Bank (ADB), in its annual economic report, revised down 2023’s growth forecast for the South Asian region to 6.3 percent from 6.5 percent following a slowdown in Bangladesh and the recent floods in Pakistan.
Meanwhile, the Asian Development Outlook projected the region’s growth for 2022 to stay at 6.5 percent.
Growth forecast for other regions
East Asia
East Asia’s growth forecasts were revised down to 2.9 percent in 2022 due to the mobility restrictions alongside a deep contraction in Hong Kong, China and down to 4.0 percent in 2023.
Developing Asia
For developing Asia, the growth was revised down to 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent in 2022 and 4.9 percent to 4.6 percent in 2023 for the developing Asia region. The report highlighted three key hurdles in the region’s path toward recovery: recurrent Covid-19 lockdowns in China, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and slowing global growth.
However, it noted that despite the outlook deterioration, developing Asia has been projected to grow more than other regions and suffer less inflation than most.
Southeast Asia
The 2022 forecast for Southeast Asia was upgraded to 5.5 percent from 5.1 percent amid robust consumption and resurgence of tourism in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Meanwhile, the 2023 forecast was revised down to 4.7 percent amid lesser global demand.
Caucasus and Central Asia
Growth prospects in Central Asia and the Caucasus improved from 3.9 percent to 4.8 percent in the current year as spillover from the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been more benign than expected.
The Pacific
The growth forecast for the Pacific in 2022 also ascended from 4.7 percent to 5.3 percent amid a strong tourism rebound in Fiji. Regional inflation forecasts slightly came down for 2022 from 4.5 percent to 4.4 percent but were projected higher for 2023 from 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent.
