There is a surge in terrorist attacks, but this time the main target is the law enforcement agencies, not the civilians. Many banned terrorist groups are active in the region along the Afghan border; however, the most active group is the banned Tehreek -i-Taliban Pakistan or TTP, with its links, traced back to areas across the Afghan side of the border.
Reports suggest there have been no areas under the direct influence of the banned TTP inside Pakistan; however, there may be some sleeper cells in parts of the country. Unlike the past, where the militants had challenged the writ of the government and had been using some bordering tribal districts as their bases for training. That is no more the case, and there are no safe havens in the country.
However, the latest spike in terrorist attacks against the security forces is a challenge for the government to focus more on intelligence-based targeted operations. The militant groups regrouped themselves during the ceasefire and so-called peace negotiations facilitated or mediated by the Afghan Taliban.
When the Taliban took over Afghanistan two years back, they started breaking the jails to get their fighters released. However, this action in a hurry created a serious challenge to both Pakistan and Afghanistan itself as thousands of jailed militants belonging to the banned TTP and Islamic State of Khorasan Province or Daesh Khorasan also came out of the prisons in Afghanistan. IS-KP launched attacks against the Taliban and also in parts of Pakistan. But the TTP, once on the run, resorted to violence in Pakistan.
The Afghan Taliban facilitated peace negotiations between the banned TTP and Pakistan that succeeded in securing a ceasefire; however, the terrorist incidents could not have stopped. The ceasefire was violated, and the TTP was not claiming responsibility for the attacks. Instead, the government was blamed for violating the ceasefire that was ended unilaterally by the banned Pakistani Taliban. As feared, the terrorist attacks increased against the security forces, intelligence, and police, mainly in the southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
In the latest report of the banned TTP, they have carried out 305 attacks during the last six months (January-June 2023), with a claim of killing 387 people and inflicting injuries on 484 others. Pakistan army, FC, Police, counter-terrorism department, and pro-government peace committees were targeted in the attacks.
The deadliest terrorist attack was the one in the mosque in the Peshawar Police Line on January 30 this year, and the latest one was on the compound of the security forces in Zhob Balochistan this month. Pakistan strongly reacted to the attack and alleged Afghanistan of providing sanctuaries to the Pakistani militants inside Afghanistan.
Reports emanating from the deadliest attack in Zhob, it was revealed that the terrorists were using the latest American weapons and equipment left behind in Afghanistan. Afghan Taliban has denied any safe havens on their soil. However, people aware of the banned TTP activities say the Pakistani Taliban have been using Afghan soil for training and also planning attacks inside Pakistan. Pakistan has sent its newly appointed special representative for Afghanistan to provide the evidences to the Taliban.
There are many reasons for the resurrection of the militancy in Pakistan but the issue is a test case for the Taliban to take action against the Pakistani militants carrying attacks against Pakistan. The latest attacks stirred controversy between Afghanistan and Pakistan. If both sides did not take this seriously politically and diplomatically that could further push the region into another conflict.
No one can deny the fact that many Pakistani militants were killed in Afghanistan in recent months, and there were also reports from Afghanistan that three Afghans were allegedly involved in the attacks on the FC compound in Zhob, Balochistan. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan could not tolerate having bitter relations as there are political and economic challenges.
Afghan Taliban has to take a bold decision in this regard to either restrict the movements of the Pakistani militants on its side of the border or take action against them to keep the brotherly relations intact. However, the Afghan Taliban is reluctant to take action, fearing some of the groups within the TTP may join hands with the IS-KP or Daesh Khorasan, which is a serious challenge for Afghanistan.
Kabul wants there should be a peaceful settlement of the issue, but the demands of the TTP, as revealed in the inconclusive peace negotiations. One of the demands was to reverse the status quo of ex-FATA and allow them to have their influence there. Islamabad asked the TTP to return to normal life, and the government would help in the rehabilitation and resettlement of the militants and their families with a condition to return unarmed that also was not agreed upon. The talks ended without any results.
The terrorist attacks that were reduced during the talks once again increased to assert pressure on the government. It was feared at the start of the negotiations that its failure could bring another wave of terrorism to the country. Though there are terrorist incidents as reported in the media, but the security forces have been claiming that many more attacks were neutralized and foiled with the support of intelligence agencies.
The ongoing political and economic instability has been creating difficulties for the incumbent and future governments to cope with the security challenges. Unlike in the past or before the Zarb-i-Azb military operation, now there is a need for accurate and targeted intelligence actions.
The data available from different sources reflect that most of the terrorist incidents have been taking place in the southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but for the success of the anti-terrorism policy, the local population should be taken on board.
The banned outfits including the TTP have been struggling to reinforce their writ, so the government should take the lead by winning the hearts and minds of the affected regions. Without the support of the people, military actions could help, but for the short run, not the long run.
