MOSCOW: Speculation is growing that Russia and Belarus are preparing for its largest prisoner exchange with Western nations since the Cold War era after multiple high-profile political prisoners disappeared from Russian prison cells, media reports claimed.
The signs of a major prisoner swap between Russia and Belarus on one side and Britain, Germany, Slovenia and the United States, on the other, multiplied on Thursday, however, there was no official confirmation of the biggest exchange since the Cold War.
US journalist Evan Gershkovich and former US marine Paul Whelan are expected to be released by Russia as part of one of the biggest East-West prisoner swaps since the Cold War, according to US media Thursday.
Since July 28, rumours have circulated about a potential large-scale prisoner swap after reports emerged that notable critics of Russian President Vladimir Putin—Vladimir Kara-Murza, Ilya Yashin, Oleg Orlov, Lilia Chanycheva, Ksenia Fadeyeva, Sasha Skochilenko, and Kevin Lik—were removed from their prison cells and relocated to undisclosed locations. This list has expanded further, leading to increased speculation about a possible exchange.
According to reports, the whereabouts of US citizen Paul Whelan, who has been detained in Russia since 2018 on charges of espionage, remains uncertain. Whelan’s lawyer has reported being unable to confirm his client’s location amid these developments.
Western media reported that jailed Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was set to come back to the United States as part of a prisoner swap plan.
The anticipation of a major prisoner swap intensified after Russian investigative site Agentstvo reported that a plane from Russia’s Special Flight Squadron, known for its role in previous high-profile exchanges—including the December 2022 transfer of Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout and American basketball player Brittney Griner—had departed from Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport. The aircraft was reportedly en route to Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania.
The speculation extends to possible exchanges involving several Western nations. There is hope that the swap could involve The Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who was detained in March 2023 and sentenced to 16 years for espionage in July. The US has criticized the charges as politically motivated and has persistently called for Gershkovich’s release.
According to The Moscow Times, Russia might be preparing to release between 20 and 30 political prisoners and journalists in a potential exchange with the US and Germany. This would mark the largest prisoner swap between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War. An unnamed source cited by the outlet indicated that Gershkovich could be among those set to be freed.
There were unconfirmed Russian media reports on Thursday, that another dissident, opposition leader Vadim Ostanin, had been removed from his Siberian jail prison and brought to Moscow.
Online Russian media outlet “Agenstvo” has reported that at least six special planes of the Russian government have flown to and from regions where prisons holding dissidents are detained in recent days.
A lawyer for Alexander Vinnik, a Russian citizen held in the United States, on Wednesday declined to confirm the whereabouts of his client to the state RIA news agency.
RIA also reported that four Russians jailed in the United States had been removed from a database of prisoners operated by the US Federal Bureau of Prisons.
Two Russian citizens, Vladimir Dunaev and Roman Seleznev, were detained in the US for serious cybercrimes, who could also figure in the prisoner exchange plan.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and founder of R.Politik: Reality of Russian Politics, suggested on Telegram that a significant exchange might be imminent. “It looks like we are on the verge of a very large-scale exchange with the Americans,” she noted.
Eva Merkacheva, a member of Russia’s Presidential Council for Human Rights, also commented on the possibility of a large-scale exchange, drawing parallels to historical Soviet-era exchanges. “Could this be a group exchange? Anything is possible. This has never happened in modern Russian history, but in Soviet history, yes,” she said.
The Kremlin has thus far declined to provide any official commentary on the situation. A spokesperson for the Kremlin stated, “We don’t comment on this topic”.
