Key points
- Polish F-16 missile hit house during drone interception
- Warsaw invokes NATO Article 4 after airspace violation
- Alliance launches Operation Eastern Sentry with air and naval assets
- Analysts warn repeated incursions may test NATO’s Article 5
ISLAMABAD: A dramatic chain of events after last week’s drone attack has escalated tension in Eastern Europe, leaving Poland questioning whether it can prevent future incursions without triggering full conflict.
Poland confirmed on Wednesday that a missile which struck a house during the Russian drone incursion was likely fired by one of its own F-16 jets, after malfunctioning during interception attempts. The missile strayed off course and struck a house in the village of Wyryki-Wola. No casualties were reported, but the admission has fueled political controversy in Warsaw and risked fresh escalation.
Foreign media reports said the strike followed Poland’s claim that up to 23 Russian drones entered its airspace overnight Sept. 9-10. Several were shot down by Polish and allied aircraft. Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the breach “an unprecedented violation” of sovereignty, while Moscow denied targeting Poland and insisted its drones were aimed at Ukraine.
In response, Poland invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty, prompting urgent consultations. Deploying fighter jets from France, Germany, and Denmark, bolstering air defences with sensors and missile batteries, and dispatching a Danish warship to the Baltic, NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentry on September 12. The airports in eastern Poland, including Lublin, were briefly closed as forces were put on high alert. Article 4 of the NATO treaty allows any member to call urgent consultations when it feels its security or territorial integrity is under threat. NATO officials stressed the move does not commit allies to military action but opens the door for joint responses.
Officials also warned that repeated incursions could raise questions about Article 5, NATO’s collective defence clause stating that an armed attack against one ally is considered an attack against all — a provision that has only been invoked once, after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in the United States.
Analysts told Reuters the drone swarm may have been designed to probe NATO’s reaction and stress Polish defences. Warsaw has demanded tougher measures, with Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski calling for a no-fly zone over Ukraine. NATO officials remain cautious, saying such a step risks confrontation with Russia.
The incident coincided with Russia and Belarus completing their Zapad-2025 war games near NATO borders under President Vladimir Putin’s supervision. Western officials warned the drills echoed manoeuvres that preceded the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Security strategists said repeated incursions could eventually force NATO to weigh invoking Article 5 if civilian casualties occur. For now, officials stressed Eastern Sentry is aimed at deterrence and reassurance, signalling allied solidarity with Poland.
