ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is expected to face heatwaves, localised flooding, and a rise in river flows in the coming months, as the country’s meteorological authorities forecast normal to above-normal rainfall between May and July.
In its latest seasonal outlook, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said central and southern parts of the country, including northeast Punjab, are likely to receive slightly above-average rainfall during this period.
However, parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir may see below-average precipitation.
The department warned that persistent high temperatures, particularly in southern Punjab and Sindh, could lead to severe heatwave conditions.
“Rising temperatures in the northern areas, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir, will accelerate snowmelt, which could increase river flows and raise the risk of flooding during June and July,” the forecast noted.
The PMD also issued a weather advisory for Sindh, including Karachi, predicting rain with thunder and lightning as a westerly system moves southward.
Light rain is expected on Sunday in several districts, including Jamshoro, Badin, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, and Mirpurkhas.
Thunderstorms and scattered showers are also forecast in Sukkur, Ghotki, Khairpur, and adjoining areas.
Rainfall is likely to continue into Monday in Umerkot, Tharparkar, Matiari, and other parts of lower Sindh.
The Met Office cautioned that thunderstorm-related wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail could damage vulnerable structures. Strong winds are expected in Karachi and other areas on both Sunday and Monday.
The warnings come after Pakistan experienced its second-hottest April in 65 years. According to the PMD, average national temperatures in April 2025 were 3.37°C above the long-term norm.
The average maximum temperature was 4.66°C higher than usual, with Shaheed Benazirabad recording a scorching 49°C on 17 April—the hottest day of the month.
Night-time temperatures also rose significantly, averaging 2.57°C above the historical norm, reflecting broader shifts in climate behaviour.
The month also saw a 59% decline in rainfall compared to the national average, further intensifying drought conditions in already water-stressed regions.
Environmental experts have linked these anomalies to global warming and inadequate mitigation measures. “This isn’t just heat; it’s a signal of a deepening climate crisis,” said an environmental scientist based in Islamabad.
Despite contributing less than 1% to global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan remains one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, according to global climate risk indices.
