Key points
- Water releases in Pakistan dropped by 15pc, pushing reservoirs to near dead storage
- Major dams and Chenab River flows hit critically low levels
- A severe heatwave will increase evaporation and irrigation demand
- Up to 70pc water shortage expected in the late Kharif season
- India’s Indus Waters Treaty suspension worsens Pakistan’s water crisis
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is grappling with an intensifying water crisis as soaring temperatures coincide with India’s suspension of water releases under the Indus Waters Treaty. According to the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), water releases from key dams have declined by 15 per cent compared to the same period last year, pushing major reservoirs dangerously close to dead storage levels.
As of 5 June, water levels are alarmingly low: Tarbela Dam stands at 1,465 metres, just above its dead level of 1,402 metres. Chashma Dam is at 644 metres, nearing its 638-metre threshold, and Mangla Dam has dropped to 1,163 metres, approaching its 1,050-metre limit. The discharge of the Chenab River at Marala has sharply declined from 26,645 cusecs on 28 May to just 3,064 cusecs by 5 June, further worsening the situation.
Severe heatwave
A severe heatwave is expected to hit large parts of Pakistan from 8 June, with daytime temperatures forecast to rise by 5 to 7°C above normal in central and upper Punjab, Islamabad, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The extreme heat is expected to accelerate evaporation from reservoirs and increase irrigation demand, putting additional strain on already limited water resources.
The shortage poses a serious threat to Pakistan’s agricultural sector during the crucial Kharif season (June to September). IRSA anticipates a 21 per cent water shortage in the early Kharif period, which ends on 10 June, and a potential 70 per cent shortfall in the late Kharif period. This could lead to lower crop yields, food insecurity, and economic instability. This is particularly concerning, given agriculture’s significant contribution to GDP.
Tensions with India have heightened following its decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty—a 1960 agreement governing water distribution between the two nations. The move has reduced water flow from the Chenab River and exacerbated Pakistan’s water challenges. Islamabad has condemned the suspension, stating it violates treaty provisions and endangers the livelihoods of millions dependent on the Indus Basin.
Blame game
In the aftermath of the Pahalgam incident, India hastily and baselessly pointed fingers at Pakistan, despite Islamabad’s firm denial of any involvement. Pakistan, in fact, called for a transparent and impartial investigation to unearth the truth. Ignoring this diplomatic overture, the Modi-led government launched an aggressive narrative and military posture against Pakistan.
In response, Pakistan responded with resolute force, inflicting considerable damage on India in May this year. Amid this escalation, India took the alarming step of unilaterally suspending the Indus Waters Treaty—a cornerstone agreement ensuring the fair distribution of vital river waters.
This blatant act of water aggression prompted Pakistan to urgently appeal to international stakeholders, warning of the grave consequences of India’s breach of the treaty, including its weaponisation of water as a tool of coercion.
