Pakistan’s renewed engagement with the United States has sparked a predictable debate: Does closer cooperation with Washington risk unsettling China? This concern assumes a zero-sum logic that no longer reflects either Pakistan’s interests or the realities of a multipolar world. Pakistan’s current foreign policy trajectory is not about choosing sides; it is about leveraging stability, reform, and strategic relevance to advance national interests.
At the heart of Pakistan’s improved international standing is internal stabilization. IMF-backed fiscal and structural reforms have imposed discipline on economic management and reinforced Pakistan’s commitment to a rules-based framework. These reforms are difficult, often unpopular, but they carry credibility. They signal that Pakistan is willing to follow laws, enforce regulations, and provide a predictable policy environment. This is precisely what allows a country to host complex, high-value, and long-term projects rather than short-term speculative capital.
This stabilization has coincided with a major shift in global priorities. The United States has placed critical and rare earth minerals at the center of its economic and national security planning. Under President Donald Trump’s deal-driven approach, securing reliable access to these minerals became a core component of US strategic decision-making. In this context, Pakistan’s largely untapped mineral potential, particularly in Balochistan and in regions along the Afghanistan and India borders, has elevated its importance from a peripheral market to a strategic partner.
US–Pakistan agreements in investment and security reflect this recalibration. A more stable policy and security environment has reduced risks for international investors operating in sensitive sectors such as mining, energy, and infrastructure. According to project-linked estimates, US investments connected with Pakistan are expected to generate approximately 6,000 jobs in the United States and around 7,500 jobs in Balochistan. These figures underline a critical point: this partnership produces shared economic gains rather than one-sided dependence.
Defense cooperation further reinforces this trust. The modernization of Pakistan’s F-16 fleet improves interoperability between the Pakistani and US Air Forces, enhancing operational integration and long-term coordination. This cooperation strengthens Pakistan’s ability to protect itself and its partners at a time when the region continues to face instability driven by proxy actors and terrorist organizations. Security agreements between the two countries also help lower investment risk by reinforcing Pakistan’s internal security framework.
Economic confidence is further supported by US backing for Pakistan’s EXIM Bank, which facilitates trade financing and signals trust in Pakistan’s financial and regulatory institutions. Such support not only boosts investor confidence but also integrates Pakistan more deeply into global trade and supply chains.
Against this backdrop, concerns about China must be viewed with realism rather than anxiety. China–Pakistan relations are strategic, long-term, and structural. Chinese investments, particularly under CPEC, are anchored in Pakistan’s stability and economic viability. Pakistan’s IMF engagement, legal compliance, and diversified partnerships strengthen the very foundations on which Chinese projects depend. A fiscally unstable and internationally isolated Pakistan would pose a far greater risk to Chinese interests than a Pakistan that engages multiple partners responsibly.
It is also worth noting that China itself maintains extensive economic engagement with the United States despite strategic competition. Beijing does not expect exclusivity from its partners, nor does it operate under rigid alignment doctrines. Pakistan’s balanced engagement mirrors this pragmatism. A stable, reforming Pakistan is better positioned to protect Chinese investments, sustain infrastructure projects, and contribute to regional connectivity.
Pakistan’s strategic importance is further reinforced by regional realities. Persistent instability, proxy conflicts, and terrorist networks make Pakistan a crucial partner for the United States in South Asia. Strengthened US–Pakistan cooperation enhances Pakistan’s capacity to secure its borders and economic assets, contributing to broader regional stability that benefits all major stakeholders, including China.
This strategic direction is therefore not a decision rooted in a passing moment or a transient political phase. It represents a long-term recalibration with critical and, in many respects, existential consequences for Pakistan’s economic resilience, security posture, and sovereign decision-making. The choices Pakistan makes today will shape its ability to remain stable, relevant, and autonomous in an increasingly competitive global order.
Pakistan’s strategic Choice lies in balance rather than joining any single bloc. Engagement with the United States aligns with Pakistan’s long-term economic and security interests without coming at China’s expense. The real danger lies not in diversified partnerships but in failing to recognize that sustained reform, institutional strength, and strategic confidence are essential for Pakistan’s survival and progress in the decades ahead.
