KEY POINTS
- Pakistan’s headline inflation slips to 6.1% YoY in November, marginally above the finance ministry’s 5–6% estimate.
- Monthly inflation clocks in at 0.4%, down from October’s 1.8% jump.
- Urban, rural inflation stand at 6.1% and 6.3% YoY, reflecting food and energy pressures.
- SBP maintains policy rate at 11%, expecting inflation to remain within 5–7% target band.
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s headline inflation moderated slightly to 6.1% year-on-year (YoY) in November 2025, down from 6.2% in October, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday.
The reading is slightly above the Ministry of Finance’s projected 5–6% range, highlighting persistent pressures on food and energy prices.
Monthly Inflation Shows Moderate Increase
On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, consumer prices increased by 0.4% in November, significantly lower than October’s 1.8% jump.
Compared to November 2024, when MoM inflation stood at 0.5%, the latest data indicate that price pressures are easing but remain a concern for households.
Urban and Rural Trends
Urban inflation rose to 6.1% YoY, up slightly from 6.0% in October, while rural inflation edged down to 6.3% from 6.6% in the previous month.
Monthly increases were recorded at 0.5% for urban areas and 0.2% for rural regions, showing moderation in rural price pressures.
Analysts attribute fluctuations to food price volatility following floods and supply disruptions at border points.
Expert and Market Outlook
The Ministry of Finance last week projected inflation to remain in the 5–6% range, citing improved crop arrivals and moderating fuel costs.
Brokerage houses, however, expected slightly higher readings. Topline Securities forecast 6.5–7.0% YoY, attributing pressure to disrupted food supplies and energy adjustments, while JS Global projected 6.3% YoY, driven by a 7.2% rise in food prices.
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad said the current inflation figures align with the central bank’s forecast and are expected to stay within the 5–7% target band over the medium term.
The SBP maintained its key policy rate at 11%, noting inflation may remain above the target range for a few more months before easing in the next fiscal year.
Inflation Trends
The 5-month fiscal year 2026 (5MFY26) inflation stands at 5.01%, down from 7.88% in 5MFY25, showing moderation over the longer term.
Despite this, temporary shocks in food supply and lingering effects of earlier floods continue to influence prices, especially in rural areas.
