ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Thursday issued its early forecast for the 2025 monsoon season, warning of above-average rainfall and rising temperatures that could lead to widespread flooding and environmental hazards across the country.
Addressing a press conference in Islamabad, PMD Director General Mehar Sahibzad said that the monsoon season—spanning July to September—is likely to bring heavy downpours in central and northern Punjab, upper Sindh, eastern Balochistan, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir.
At the same time, below-normal rainfall is expected in southern Punjab, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Gilgit-Baltistan.
“This spatial variability, coupled with significantly higher temperatures, may trigger extreme weather events such as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), flash floods, and urban flooding,” Sahibzad warned.
The Met Office anticipates extreme heat across large parts of Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab.
Elevated temperatures could accelerate glacier melting in the northern regions, further raising the risk of sudden floods.
Urban centres such as Lahore, Rawalpindi, Karachi, and Gujranwala have been identified as high-risk areas for urban flooding.
The PMD cautioned that the upcoming weather pattern may severely impact agriculture, particularly the output of seasonal crops and fruit harvests.
“The activation of emergency operation centres at the provincial and district levels is crucial,” said Sahibzad, urging relevant departments to ensure timely deployment of rescue and relief teams in vulnerable regions.
The PMD has called for pre-emptive measures to reduce the risk of loss of life and property. “There is a significant risk of river and stream overflows,” warned Sahibzad. “We must take this forecast seriously and prepare accordingly.”
Early arrival of monsoon rains
On Tuesday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed its earlier projection of an above-normal monsoon for 2025.
Ravichandran, Secretary of India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences, stated that rainfall across India is expected to be 106% of the long-term average between June and September.
India’s monsoon season, which typically begins in Kerala around 1 June, arrived eight days early this year—the earliest onset in 16 years. It has already advanced to cover much of the western coast, including Mumbai, nearly two weeks ahead of schedule.
According to the IMD, central and southern India are likely to experience above-average rainfall, while average precipitation is expected in the southwestern regions.
Northeastern states may see below-average rainfall. June alone is projected to bring 108% of the long-term average rainfall.
