ISLAMABAD: The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has warned that Pakistan is expected to experience a significant 43% water shortfall in April, attributed to below-normal snowfall, decreasing river inflows, and a dry summer forecast.
The water shortage comes at a crucial time, as wheat harvesting is underway and preparations are starting for summer crops such as cotton, rice, and sugarcane.
With reservoir levels critically low, farmers, especially in Punjab and Sindh, the country’s agricultural heartlands, are preparing for severe irrigation shortages that could jeopardise crop yields.
The Irsa Advisory Committee (IAC) approved the projected water availability criteria for April–September, but only finalised allocations for April due to the uncertainty surrounding climate conditions.
“The Irsa Advisory Committee (IAC) duly accounting for the unclear climatical parameters and keeping in view the summer 2025 weather outlook presented by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), approved the water availability only for the month of April 25 with 43% system shortfall,” said an official statement, adding that the water situation would again be reviewed in the first week of May.
The country’s key water reservoirs have plunged to critically low levels, hitting what officials describe as “dead levels”, in a development that poses a serious threat to the country’s agricultural output.
The latest figures from the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) reveal that both the Tarbela and Chashma reservoirs have reached their minimum levels, leaving no usable live water storage.
Meanwhile, Tarbela, Pakistan’s largest dam, is at exactly 1,402 feet, its minimum threshold, with zero million acre-feet (MAF) of live storage.
Similarly, Chashma has dropped to 638.15 feet, also registering zero MAF. The Mangla reservoir, which is Pakistan’s second-largest, is slightly better, holding 20 feet of water above its dead level of 1,050 feet.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) told the committee that winter snowfall in the Indus and Jhelum catchments was recorded at just 26.8 inches 31% lower than the normal 49.7 inches.
This, coupled with below-normal rainfall and higher-than-average temperatures forecast for April to June, is expected to reduce water availability for irrigation and hydropower.
The water shortfall presents a major challenge for farmers who depend on Indus water for the upcoming sowing season.
Crops such as cotton, rice, and sugarcane require adequate water supplies, and any shortages could affect agricultural yields.
